Home › MLS › Charlotte FC @ New York City FC
MLS
Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC
FC
New York City FC
FC
New York City FC
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
New York City FC New York City FC -0.5
"Institutional whales dump $7.8M on NYC home ML (+3.5% edge, +6 EV) vs flat market"
EV / $100
+5.8
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+7.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York City FC None
60%
TOTAL under 2.5
52%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$8330239 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 1919 trades Kalshi: 375 trades Largest: $75170

Player Props Engine

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Charlotte FC

New York City FC

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-0.9
Moneyline
NEW 114 / CHA -114
Win Probability
47% - 53%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Charlotte FC @ New York City FC
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Charlotte FC @ New York City FC

+5.8 EV
per $100 wagered
New York City FC 58% Lean Raw
"Institutional whales dump $7.8M on NYC home ML (+3.5% edge, +6 EV) vs flat market"
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +7.0%
Line Movement
Current NYC -0.5 (-125) / Charlotte +0.5 (-115) | ML NYC -115 / Charlotte +275 | Total 2.5
Movement No significant movement
+EV on home side due to whale convergence vs market
FULL ANALYSIS
Extreme whale steam ($7.8M, 101 wallets, 72% home) on NYC -115 ML despite flat line and Bayesian neutral. Fernández/Morález/Biel combine for 14 G/A in 7 games, Charlotte lacks firepower. Poor data caps at lean, EV +6% home.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($7.8M from 101 profitable wallets, 72% on home) = institutional signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York City FC -0.5
+5.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York City FC None
+6.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
-1.2 EV 52%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
New York City FC -115
  • Whales 72% confident on home ML with extreme $7.8M volume (institutional tier)
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
New York City FC -0.5
  • Extreme whale action ($7.8M) on home despite flat line
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 52%
UNDER 2.5
  • No pace/injury data, totals losing across tiers (43-52% WR)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
NYCFC ML -115 +6.1 EV on $7.8M extreme whales (72% home) vs Charlotte +275; model 57% prob
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