MLS
Seattle Sounders FC
FC
Sporting Kansas City
City
Whale Activity Detected
$352766 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 165 trades
Kalshi: 93 trades
Largest: $5356
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
37.5%
ML
167 / -167
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGASeattle Sounders FC
Sporting Kansas City
Model Lines
MODELSpread
-6.7
Moneyline
SPO 263
/
SEA -263
Win Probability
28%
-
72%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Seattle Sounders FC @ Sporting Kansas City
+19.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Sporting Kansas City
57%
Lean
"SKC +320 +5.7pp model edge (29.5% prob) + extreme whales; Over 2.5 +14.9pp on 7.5 omega total"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
30%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-20.5%
Line Movement
Current
SEA -0.5 (SKC +0.5 +110 / SEA -0.5 -150), Total 2.5 (-110), ML SKC +320 / SEA -140
Movement
No significant movement detected
+EV on SKC ML +320 (29.5% model > 23.8% breakeven); total over also +EV at 64.9% prob
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion spots +5.7pp edge on SKC ML (29.5% vs 23.8% implied) with omega even spread vs SEA -0.5 and extreme $125k whales on home. Total 2.5 crushed by projections (omega 7.5, MC 6.4, Dixon-Coles 12.8 goals). MC even matchup (41% home win) confirms home +0.5 cover at 57%; data gaps cap confidence.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($125k+, 77% confidence from 15 profitable wallets) on home side
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
Sporting Kansas City 320
- Bayesian posterior 29.5% home win vs market 23.8% (+5.7pp edge); exceeds breakeven by 5.7%
SPREAD PICK
○
57%
Sporting Kansas City 0.5
- Omega spread even (0.0) vs market SEA -0.5; MC home +0.5 cover 56.9% (win 41.2% + draw 15.7%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
60%
OVER 2.5
- Over 2.5 posterior 64.9% vs 50% implied (+14.9pp); Omega 7.5 total, MC proj 6.4, Dixon-Coles 12.8 combined
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
SKC +320 +5.7pp model edge (29.5% prob) + extreme whales; Over 2.5 +14.9pp on 7.5 omega total
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