Home › NHL › Utah Mammoth @ Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth
Mammoth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω DDN SI PICK
50% Lean
50% Lean
MONEYLINE
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth None
EV / $100
-8.5
Win Prob
52%
Edge
-4.1%
SPREAD Utah Mammoth -1.5
50%
TOTAL under 6.5
50%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 1.1% divergence on spread with moderate signal.
Sharp: away
Whale Activity Detected
$8908 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (87% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 5 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $4865

Player Props Engine

Powered by DDN SI

Utah Mammoth

Toronto Maple Leafs

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 112 / -133 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 115 / -127 -
Value Line - 114 / -136 -
Sharp Action Best Line 1.5 (-220) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-211) ↓ - -
Value Line 1.5 (-225) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.5 (-130)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (-134)
Value Line - - Over 6.5 (-141)
De-Vigged Fair Value -199 / 199 121 / -121 O/U -127 / 127
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Utah Mammoth

K
Kailer Yamamoto
(RW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
John Marino
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
M
Maveric Lamoureux
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve

Toronto Maple Leafs

K
Kirill Marchenko
(RW) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
M
Miles Wood
(LW) Injured Reserve — Wood (undisclosed) was transferred to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.
Injured Reserve
N
Nick Blankenburg
(D) Injured Reserve — Blankenburg (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Maple Leafs on Friday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.
Injured Reserve
M
Marshall Rifai
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
J
John Tavares
(C) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
M
Max Domi
(C) Injured Reserve — Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia.
Injured Reserve
C
Cade Webber
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
E
Elvis Merzlikins
(G) Injured Reserve — Merzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet.
Injured Reserve
W
William Villeneuve
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Utah Mammoth @ Toronto Maple Leafs
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-220)
Total Over 6.5
Key Injuries
Kailer Yamamoto Day-To-Day
John Marino Injured Reserve
Kirill Marchenko Injured Reserve
Miles Wood Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

Get Daily Picks

DDN SI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Utah Mammoth (-130) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T03:02:22.266153 UTC

Side leans with weak sharp money (0.4% divergence) but posterior 52.4% sits under the 56.5% breakeven — no positive EV, no bet.

Spread: Utah Mammoth -1.5 (+180) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T20:05:30.895446 UTC

Away -1.5 cover posterior is only 34.3% vs ~35.7% implied at +180 — effectively zero edge, and sharp signal (0.9%) is weak.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T03:02:22.346305 UTC

Matthews leads Toronto in goals (24) and points (11 game perspective unavailable); with Tavares on IR, he gets the heaviest usage. Roster unvalidated, capped at 60.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Utah Mammoth @ Toronto Maple Leafs

+-8.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Utah Mammoth 50% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. — market and model agree to the tenth of a point on Utah-Toronto; NHL desk is -13.9% ROI and paused, zero edge found.
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 56%
Edge -4.1%
Line Movement
Current ML: Home 110 / Away -130 | Spread 1.5 (Home -218 / Away +180) | Total 6.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
Away ML at -130 needs 56.5% breakeven vs our 52.4% posterior — negative EV. Every market here prices at or above our posterior; this is vig, not edge.
FULL ANALYSIS
PASS game. Bayesian posterior matches the market dead-on (+0.0pp edge) across all three markets — the line has already absorbed Toronto's heavy injury picture (Marchenko, Wood, Tavares all IR, -25% home impact). Sharp money leans away but only 0.4-0.9% with no RLM, and whale wallets ($8.9K, 88% home) conflict with it. NHL is on pause from the calibration desk (-13.9% ROI, 25% CLV beat); nothing here clears a 4% edge threshold.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 0.4% ML / 0.9% spread toward away, but signal strength is weak with no RLM. Whale money ($8.9K, 88% home side) contradicts the modest sharp away lean — per synthesis rules sharp book wins, but signals are too weak and conflicting to drive a bet.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Utah Mammoth None
-8.5 EV 50%
SPREAD Utah Mammoth -1.5
-8.5 EV 50%
TOTAL under 6.5
-1.4 EV 50%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Utah Mammoth -130
  • Side leans with weak sharp money (0.4% divergence) but posterior 52.4% sits under the 56.5% breakeven — no positive EV, no bet
SPREAD PICK
○ 50%
Utah Mammoth -1.5
  • Away -1.5 cover posterior is only 34.3% vs ~35.7% implied at +180 — effectively zero edge, and sharp signal (0.9%) is weak
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 50%
UNDER 6.5
  • Under posterior 45.8% vs implied 45.7% at +119 — dead-on price, zero edge; totals are also the model's worst market (45.4% sport WR overall)
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Kalshi prices Leafs at just 43.5% while the model posterior says 56.5% Mammoth — Utah ML at LEAN sizing with Toronto down 5 IR players including Tavares
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700