Home › NBA › Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
NBA
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors
Warriors
96 - 111
Final
Phoenix Suns
Suns
Phoenix Suns
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Golden State Warriors Golden State Warriors 3.5
"Suns ML +9.1 EV (66.3% model vs 60.8% implied) + whale extreme home on injuries despite MC away lean"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
66%
Edge
+16.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Phoenix Suns None
65%
TOTAL under 219.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-2.5
Edge: +1.0
Total
179.0
Edge: -40.5
Win Prob
59.7%
ML
-148 / 148

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Golden State Warriors

Phoenix Suns

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -140 / 120 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -140 / 129 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 23.5 (220)
Market Consensus - - Over 220.0 (-104)
Market Consensus -3.0 (-105) - -
De-Vigged Fair Value -101 / 101 -135 / 135 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Golden State Warriors

Q
Quinten Post
(C) out — Post (foot) averaged 7.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.5 blocks and 0.4 steals in 17.3 minutes per game across 67 regular-season appearances (35 starts) in 2025-26.
Out
L
LJ Cryer
(G) out — Cryer (ankle) will be re-evaluated in one week after an MRI confirmed a right-ankle sprain.
Out
M
Moses Moody
(G) out — Moody has been diagnosed with a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
J
Jimmy Butler III
(F) out — Butler underwent successful surgery Monday to repair a torn right anterior cruciate ligament.
Out

Phoenix Suns

M
Mark Williams
(C) day-to-day — Williams (foot) won't play in Sunday's game against Oklahoma City, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jordan Goodwin
(G) day-to-day — Goodwin has been ruled out for the rest of Game 1 against the Thunder on Sunday due to left calf soreness, Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic reports.
Day-To-Day
Box Score
FINAL
Golden State Warriors
Warriors
96
-
Phoenix Suns
Suns
111
Golden State Warriors 3.5
60% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Golden State Warriors 60% Lean Calibrated
"Suns ML +9.1 EV (66.3% model vs 60.8% implied) + whale extreme home on injuries despite MC away lean"
66% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 66%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +16.3%
Line Movement
Current PHX -3.5 (Home -112 / Away -108) | Total 219.5 | ML PHX -155 / GSW +130
Movement No significant movement
+9.1 EV on PHX ML at -155 (breakeven 60.8%, our 66.3% exceeds by 5.5%); spread GSW +3.5 +4.2 EV; under 219.5 +28.4 EV
Model: 48.6% win rate | n=523 — ML profitable in Strong tier; reduce totals 5pts; N=523 NBA
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fuses to 66.3% Suns win (+5.5% edge vs 60.8% implied) with whale extreme $165k home and net injury edge +18.1%, but MC/omega see GSW +3.5 cover (58.7% at +2.5). Total market 219.5 vs models 179-188 screams under value despite sharp over signal. Divergent models (VERY_LOW agreement) cap conf; favor ML over spread.
SHARP MONEY
ML sharp home weak (+0.8%); spread RLM to away weak; total over strong (+20.4%) but contradicted by models; whale extreme home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Golden State Warriors 3.5
+4.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Phoenix Suns None
+9.1 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 219.5
+28.4 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Phoenix Suns -155
  • Bayesian posterior 66.3% vs implied 60.8% (+5.5% edge); breakeven 60.8% exceeded by 5.5%
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Golden State Warriors 3.5
  • Omega spread PHX -2.5 vs market -3.5 (1pt edge on GSW +3.5); MC away covers -2.5 at 58.7%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 219.5
  • Omega total 179 vs market 219.5 (-40pt edge); expected scores 90.8-88.1, NegBin 181.3, Decomp 181.3
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Curry/Butler/Porzingis talent edge vs Allen-injured Suns; model Clippers/Warriors -4.5 (+2.8 EV)
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