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Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames
Flames
Anaheim Ducks
Ducks
Anaheim Ducks
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames 1.55
"Flames +130 ML (+4.8EV): Ducks missing 5 incl top D/F leaders, model sees 52% vs 43% breakeven"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Calgary Flames None
66%
TOTAL under 6.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Calgary Flames

Anaheim Ducks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action - -155 / 133 ↑ -
Sharp Action 2.5 (-900) - -
Sharp Action - - Over 2.5 (-150)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Calgary Flames

J
Jonathan Castagna
(RW) out — out
Out
J
Joel Hanley
(D) out — out
Out
S
Samuel Honzek
(LW) Injured Reserve — Honzek (upper body) will not return this season, per Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet 960 The Fan on Friday.
Injured Reserve
J
Jonathan Huberdeau
(LW) Injured Reserve — Huberdeau (hip) was put on injured reserve Saturday, per the NHL media site.
Injured Reserve
C
Cullen Potter
(LW) out — out
Out

Anaheim Ducks

P
Pavel Mintyukov
(D) out — out
Out
R
Radko Gudas
(D) out — Gudas (lower body) has been ruled out of Friday's tilt against St. Louis, Derek Lee of The Hockey News reports.
Out
C
Cutter Gauthier
(LW) out — Gauthier (upper body), who has already been ruled out against San Jose on Wednesday, is considered questionable for the Ducks' next two home games as well, Max Miller of NHL.com reports.
Out
J
Jansen Harkins
(C) out — Harkins had hand surgery Monday and is expected to miss about four weeks, the team announced Tuesday.
Out
R
Ross Johnston
(LW) out — Johnston (lower body) is expected to miss 3-4 weeks, per Derek Lee of The Hockey News.
Out
P
Petr Mrazek
(G) Injured Reserve — Mrazek underwent season-ending hip surgery Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Calgary Flames @ Anaheim Ducks
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-900)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Jonathan Castagna Out
Joel Hanley Out
Pavel Mintyukov Out
Radko Gudas Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Calgary Flames @ Anaheim Ducks

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Calgary Flames 64% Sharp Lean
"Flames +130 ML (+4.8EV): Ducks missing 5 incl top D/F leaders, model sees 52% vs 43% breakeven"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current ANA -155 / Flames +130, Spread ANA -155, Total 6.5
Movement No movement data
+EV on Flames ML at +130; breakeven 43.5%, our 52% exceeds by 8.5%
Model: 42.3% win rate | n=215 — N=215 NHL; recent 7d -39u; 9-6 vs Ducks, 5-7 vs Flames; cap all at 66 max
FULL ANALYSIS
Ducks hammered by injuries (5 out incl D core Mintyukov/Gudas + leader Gauthier 38G/65P) while Flames miss lesser pieces; -155 home fave overprices Anaheim's depleted roster vs model 52% Flames win prob. Recent H2H Flames 1-1 split. Under 6.5 fits injury-suppressed scoring (proj 5.8 goals).
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Calgary Flames 1.55
+3.2 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Calgary Flames None
+4.8 EV 66% 1u
TOTAL under 6.5
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Anaheim Ducks -155
  • Ducks ML value with 64% model prob vs 60.8% implied; Flames IR losses (Huberdeau/Honzek) hit depth more than Ducks' D-men outs
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Anaheim Ducks -1.5
  • Model sees Ducks covering -1.5 despite injuries due to home ice (1.02 HCA) and Flames missing Huberdeau (key C usage)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 6.5
  • Injury-depleted rosters both sides reduce scoring; NHL variance high but 6.5 total fits low-event projection (model exp 5.8 goals)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Ducks ML -155 (+3.8 EV): 64% model vs 60.8% implied, Flames C depth crushed by IR > Ducks D outs
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