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New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +1.8% EV ALIGNED
54% Lean
54% Lean
SPREAD
Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 1.5
"Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge on over 9.0 — Monte Carlo projects 19.0 total runs, market is undervaluing scoring potential"
EV / $100
+3.9
Win Prob
45%
Edge
-5.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Toronto Blue Jays None
55%
MONEYLINE Toronto Blue Jays None
55%
TOTAL over 9.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 1.6% divergence on ML with moderate signal. RLM detected on moneyline.
Sharp: home Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$740581 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 263 trades Kalshi: 149 trades Largest: $54000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
33.1%
ML
202 / -202

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -105 / -115 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -114 / 104 -
Value Line - -109 / -114 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (179) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 194 / -194 -109 / 109 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

J
Jackson Cluff
(SS) day-to-day — The Mets signed Cluff to a minor-league contract Friday with an invitation to spring training.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 60-day IL — Robert (back) will start a rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Marcus Semien
(2B) 10-day IL — Semien was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 3 left hip flexor strain and is expected to be out for 4-to-6 weeks, at a minimum, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Clay Holmes
(SP) 60-day IL — Holmes (fibula) has been throwing on flat ground and is expected to progress to mound work next week, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 60-day IL — Polanco (Achilles) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Syracuse on Saturday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — Nunez (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Christian Arroyo
(2B) day-to-day — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Baumann
(RP) day-to-day — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) day-to-day — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out

Toronto Blue Jays

M
Max Scherzer
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager John Schneider said Tuesday that Scherzer (back/side) will likely make a few rehab starts at Triple-A Buffalo to ramp up before returning from the injured list, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
V
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
(1B) day-to-day — Guerrero was scratched from the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Mets due to back tightness.
Day-To-Day
A
Arjun Nimmala
(SS) day-to-day — The Blue Jays promoted Nimmala from High-A Vancouver to Double-A New Hampshire on Sunday.
Day-To-Day
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 60-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Garcia (elbow/neck/biceps) has resumed playing catch, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Addison Barger
(RF) 10-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Barger (elbow) will be shut down for a couple of weeks after a recent MRI revealed a stress reaction in his back, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jesus Sanchez
(RF) 10-day IL — The Blue Jays placed Sanchez on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right ankle sprain.
10-Day-IL
R
RJ Schreck
(LF) day-to-day — Schreck (hand) has gone 2-for-8 with a home run, two RBI and an additional run in two games for Triple-A Buffalo since being reinstated from the 7-day injured list Friday.
Day-To-Day
L
Lenyn Sosa
(2B) 10-day IL — Sosa (wrist) will begin a rehab assignment Monday with the Blue Jays' Arizona Complex League affiliate, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Santander (shoulder) could resume hitting within the next week, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Mantiply
(RP) 60-day IL — Mantiply will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair some damage in his left knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 60-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
60-Day-IL
F
Fernando Perez
(P) Developmental List
developmental list
G
Geovanny Jesus Planchart
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) day-to-day — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (179)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Jackson Cluff Day-To-Day
Luis Robert Jr. 60-Day-IL
Max Scherzer 15-Day-IL
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays

+3.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Toronto Blue Jays 54% Lean
"Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge on over 9.0 — Monte Carlo projects 19.0 total runs, market is undervaluing scoring potential"
45% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 45%
Book Implied 51%
Edge -5.9%
Line Movement
Open ML: Home -105 / Away -115, Total: 9.0
Current ML: Home -105 / Away -115, Total: 9.0
Movement No significant movement detected. Market is stable with no velocity.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. day-to-day — potential lineup uncertainty for Blue Jays No probable pitchers announced — significant uncertainty in game script Both teams have roughly equal injury impact (-10.6% each)
Negative EV on the home moneyline. The calibrated (45.3%) is well below the market implied probability (51.2%), meaning the market is overpricing the Blue Jays. The value is on the away side.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Bayesian fusion shows a massive +15.2pp edge on the over at 9.0, with the posterior at 65.2% over probability. The Monte Carlo simulation projects a 9.4-9.6 game (19.0 total), well above the market line. Sharp money favors the home side on the moneyline (1.6% edge, RLM detected), and whale signals show $740K volume on home, but the quantitative models (Bayesian 45.3%, Monte Carlo 43.7%) disagree. The total is the clearest edge here — the Bayesian posterior is the most reliable signal, and the +15.2pp edge is significant. However, MLB totals have been our weakest market (48.7% WR), and data quality is degraded (67%), so confidence is capped at 65.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge of 1.6% on home moneyline with RLM detected. However, the Bayesian posterior (45.3% home) and Monte Carlo (43.7% home) both disagree with the sharp signal, suggesting the sharp money may be reacting to public steam rather than true value. Whale signals also favor home (67% confidence, $740K volume), but prediction markets lean away (48.5% home). Mixed signals reduce conviction.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Toronto Blue Jays 1.5
+3.9 EV 54% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Toronto Blue Jays None
+1.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Toronto Blue Jays None
+1.8 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+15.2 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Toronto Blue Jays -105
  • +EV analysis shows home moneyline at -105 on Bovada offers +1.8% EV vs Pinnacle fair value of 52.1%
SPREAD PICK
○ 54%
Toronto Blue Jays 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows 53.9% home cover probability at +1.5, a +3.9pp edge over the market's 50% implied probability
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian posterior shows 65.2% over probability at 9.0, a massive +15.2pp edge over the market's 50% implied probability
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets +2.2 spread (56.3% win prob vs 50% market) and over 8.5 (65.2% win prob) offer strong quant-based value; model total of 19.4 runs makes over a standout play.
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