Home › MLB › Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians
MLB
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
6 - 4
Final
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
59% Lean
59% Lean
SPREAD
Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 1.5
"BAL +119 ML +13.9 EV (48% model home win vs 58.9% implied), MC 20.7 total >> 8.0 market"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Baltimore Orioles None
60%
TOTAL over 8.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
34.3%
ML
192 / -192

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Baltimore Orioles

Cleveland Guardians

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -138 / 115 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 121 -
Value Line - -195 / 140 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (310) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (158) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 168 / -168 -126 / 126 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler O'Neill
(RF) 7-day IL — O'Neill (concussion) did some agility work on the field at Kauffmann Stadium on Monday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
7-Day IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (wrist) will continue his rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk on Tuesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Dietrich Enns
(RP) 15-day IL — Enns (foot) will embark on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk on Saturday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Kittredge
(RP) 15-day IL — Kittredge (shoulder/paternity) resumed his rehab assignment at Triple-A Norfolk on Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Adley Rutschman
(C) 10-day IL — Rutschman (ankle) said Friday that he's progressed to running and going through drills but remains without a firm timetable for return, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — Kjerstad (hamstring) is running and participating in baseball activities, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
K
Keegan Akin
(RP) 10-day IL — Akin (groin) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan Mountcastle
(1B) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Mountcastle (foot) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hans Crouse
(RP) day-to-day — Crouse (lat) struck out two and allowed two earned runs on three hits over an inning of relief Saturday in the Orioles' 8-6 win over the Pirates in his Grapefruit League debut.
Day-To-Day
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Payton Eeles
(2B) day-to-day — Eeles left Sunday's spring training game against the Tigers due to left shoulder discomfort, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
6
-
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
4
Baltimore Orioles 1.5
59% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Baltimore Orioles 59% Lean Calibrated
"BAL +119 ML +13.9 EV (48% model home win vs 58.9% implied), MC 20.7 total >> 8.0 market"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current CLE ML -143 / BAL +119, Total 8.0
Movement No significant movement
+13.9 EV on BAL ML +119; exceeds breakeven 45.7% by 6.3%
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — N=552 MLB; leans profitable on ML/spread, totals losing all tiers
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fuses market prior with models to 48% CLE win vs 58.9% implied (+EV BAL ML), omega ML away -192 but VERY_LOW agreement caps conviction. MC 20.7 total crushes market 8.0 for massive over edge despite no pitchers. Whales extreme on CLE ($514k vol) contradicts model away lean, reduce 3pts; injuries even -7.5% both sides.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Baltimore Orioles 1.5
+4.2 EV 59% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Baltimore Orioles None
+13.9 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+28.4 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Baltimore Orioles 119
  • Bayesian posterior 48% home win vs 58.9% implied, +2.6% devig edge to BAL
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
Baltimore Orioles 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market implying CLE fav, MC home cover +0 at 46.1%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 8.0
  • MC projected 20.7 total (10.4-10.3) vs market 8.0, under 73.6% only at 24
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
CLE +214 ML +44 EV (45% model >31.8% BE) + extreme $106k whales; MC 71% under 24
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