Home › Bundesliga › 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 @ Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
1846
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Mönchengla
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Full Game Analysis
Bundesliga
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5
"BMG -175: Heidenheim 3-6-18 road dogs get crushed, model 68% vs 63.6% implied (+4.9 EV)"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
68%
Edge
+18.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Borussia Mönchengladbach None
68%
TOTAL under 3.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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1. FC Heidenheim 1846

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
BOR -100 / 1. -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 @ Borussia Mönchengladbach
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 @ Borussia Mönchengladbach

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Borussia Mönchengladbach 65% Sharp Lean
"BMG -175: Heidenheim 3-6-18 road dogs get crushed, model 68% vs 63.6% implied (+4.9 EV)"
68% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 68%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +18.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current BMG -0.5 (-180 / +130), ML -175 / +380, Total 3.5
Movement No movement data
Home ML offers +4.9 EV at -175; breakeven 63.6% vs our 68% model prob exceeds by 4.4%
FULL ANALYSIS
Heidenheim's 3-6-18 road record screams fade vs BMG's home edge at Borussia-Park. Model projects 68% BMG win prob (1.8-1.1 scoreline) vs -175 implied 63.6%, delivering +4.9 EV. Total undervalues Heidenheim's offensive woes projecting under 3.5 at 58% confidence despite totals' poor calibration.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5
+3.8 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Borussia Mönchengladbach None
+4.9 EV 68% 1.5u
TOTAL under 3.5
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 72%
Borussia Mönchengladbach -185
  • Heidenheim's 3-24 away record (11% win rate) crushed by BMG's superior home form
SPREAD PICK
● 70%
Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5
  • Heidenheim 3-6-18 road record (14.3% win rate) vs BMG home strength
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Combined poor form projects 2.1 goals; totals losing across all tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Heidenheim 3-24 road (11% wins) gets crushed by BMG home; +8.6 EV on -185 ML
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