Moneyline: Atlanta Dream (-142)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-05T23:39:07.788485 UTC
68.7% OMEGA win prob vs 58.7% breakeven clears -142 filter by 10pp with +17.08 EV
WNBA
New York Liberty
Liberty
Atlanta Dream
Dream
Whale Activity Detected
$11417 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away
Polymarket: 8 trades
Largest: $2876
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-5.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
138.5
Edge: -32.0
Win Prob
68.7%
ML
-219 / 219
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGANew York Liberty
Atlanta Dream
OMEGA Model Lines
MODELSpread
8.7
Moneyline
ATL -348
/
NEW 348
Win Probability
78%
-
22%
OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Recorded picks and reasons
These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.
Spread: Atlanta Dream -3.5 (-102)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-05T23:39:07.828804 UTC
OMEGA -5.0 vs market -3.5 plus 30-14 and 15-7 home vs 12-10 away and 91.8 vs 85.1 momentum
Player Prop: over (-110)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-05T23:39:07.866404 UTC
High-usage star with Sabally out adding usage
Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream
+12.88 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Dream
62%
Lean
"Dream home edge 30-14 vs 12-10 away with +1.5 spread gap and 68.7% vs 58.7% ML math"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
69%
Book Implied
59%
Edge
+10.0%
Line Movement
Current
Atlanta Dream -3.5 / Total 170.5 / Atlanta -142
Movement
No opening line supplied; current DraftKings: spread -3.5, total 170.5
+EV on Atlanta Dream ML: 68.7% model vs 58.7% implied; EV +17.08 per $100 at -142
FULL ANALYSIS
Dream 30-14 with 15-7 home and 91.8 momentum vs Liberty 26-18 and 85.1. OMEGA -5.0 vs -3.5 and 68.7% win prob support Atlanta -3.5 and -142. OMEGA 138.5 and decomposed 157.0 vs 170.5 support under, but both teams missing starters so kept Lean.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
65%
Atlanta Dream -142
- 68.7% OMEGA win prob vs 58.7% breakeven clears -142 filter by 10pp with +17.08 EV
SPREAD PICK
○
62%
Atlanta Dream -3.5
- OMEGA -5.0 vs market -3.5 plus 30-14 and 15-7 home vs 12-10 away and 91.8 vs 85.1 momentum
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
60%
UNDER 170.5
- OMEGA 138.5 and decomposed 157.0 both well below 170.5 with 71.6-66.7 expected score
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Dream home edge 30-14 vs 12-10 away with +1.5 spread gap and 68.7% vs 58.7% ML math
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