English Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur
Hotspur
Aston Villa
Villa
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGATottenham Hotspur
Aston Villa
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Consensus | - | 121 / 231 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | -0.25 (-108) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 2.75 (102) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | -104 / 104 | -133 / 133 | O/U 107 / -107 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Tottenham Hotspur @ Aston Villa
Aston Villa
57%
Lean
"Aston Villa ML +115 breakeven at 46.5% posterior prob; neutral EV, poor data caps edge"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
46%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-3.5%
Line Movement
Current
ML: Aston Villa +115 / Tottenham Hotspur -225; Spread: Aston Villa -0.5 (+105 home / -145 away); Total: 2.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior pegs Aston Villa win at 46.5%, exact breakeven for +115 ML with zero edge vs market. No injuries, form, or situational flags; Kalshi at 45.5% home confirms neutrality. Poor data quality (27%) and losing historical totals force low-confidence leans only.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
Aston Villa 115
- Bayesian posterior 46.5% exactly matches +115 breakeven win rate for zero EV but playable dog price
SPREAD PICK
○
57%
Aston Villa -0.5
- Posterior 46.5% home win aligns with spread cover prob but odds at +105 yield breakeven EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- EPL default under bias on 2.5 total with no pace/xG data; historical totals losing WR 48.7%
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Aston Villa ML +115 breakeven at 46.5% posterior prob; neutral EV, poor data caps edge
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