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MLB
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Sox
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.0% EV ALIGNED
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 1.5
"Over 8.5 at -110: Bayesian posterior 65.2% vs market 50.0% — +15.2pp edge. Omega model projects 22.5 total runs. Take the over."
EV / $100
+3.5
Win Prob
62%
Edge
-2.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
55%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1536913 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 399 trades Kalshi: 19 trades Largest: $152772
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
42.2%
ML
137 / -137

Player Props Engine

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Chicago White Sox

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -183 / 151 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -173 / 158 -
Value Line - -190 / 150 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (225) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (115) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 121 / -121 -166 / 166 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago White Sox

H
Hagen Smith
(SP) day-to-day — Smith will be shut down for two weeks after being diagnosed with a left shoulder impingement, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kyle Teel
(C) 60-day IL — Teel (knee/hamstring) will start a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Tuesday, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Noah Schultz
(SP) 15-day IL — Schultz (knee) will begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Tuesday, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jordan Hicks
(RP) 15-day IL — Hicks (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Saturday, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tim Elko
(1B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Gilbert
(RP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Gilbert on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left shoulder impingement.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 60-day IL — Hays has been pulled off his rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte due to a recurrence of left calf soreness, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Munetaka Murakami
(1B) 10-day IL — White Sox manager Will Venable said Monday that Murakami (hamstring) stayed back in Chicago during the team's road trip and was given a platelet-rich plasma injection, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Leasure
(RP) 60-day IL — Leasure (forearm) said Friday that he will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — Bush (elbow) had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to return until the second half of the season, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 60-day IL — Thorpe (elbow) recently underwent an appendectomy but has resumed throwing, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 60-day IL — Berroa is dealing with right elbow inflammation and will have his rehab stint paused, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Murray
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

New York Yankees

J
Jasson Dominguez
(DH) day-to-day — Dominguez (teeth) is not in the starting lineup for Tuesday's matchup against the White Sox.
Day-To-Day
T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Grisham has been diagnosed with a "moderate" right hamstring strain, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced that Stanton (calf) reinjured his calf and will have a slow week of activities, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Austin Wells
(C) 10-day IL — Wells (head) has been sent to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to begin a rehab assignment.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Fried (elbow) will throw off a mound Saturday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) has been "feeling great" during recent mound sessions and could start throwing to hitters by the end of June, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
E
Eric Reyzelman
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (225)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Hagen Smith Day-To-Day
Kyle Teel 60-Day-IL
Jasson Dominguez Day-To-Day
Trent Grisham 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees

+3.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Chicago White Sox 58% Lean
"Over 8.5 at -110: Bayesian posterior 65.2% vs market 50.0% — +15.2pp edge. Omega model projects 22.5 total runs. Take the over."
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 65%
Edge -2.5%
Line Movement
Current ML: home -186 / away 153 | Spread: -1.5 (no juice listed) | Total: 8.5
Movement No significant line movement detected. ML market settled near -186/+153.
Starting pitcher mismatch: Rodon (3.19 ERA) vs Kay (4.34 ERA) — clear home advantage Home injury burden heavier (-9.7% vs -6.9% away) — narrows pitching edge Yankees bullpen degradation from Dominguez/Wells/IL absences White Sox bats vs lefties: league-average splits, no extreme advantage
Moneyline at -186 demands 65.0% win probability to break even; our posterior is 62.5%. Negative EV on the ML. But the spread market is where true edge lives.
FULL ANALYSIS
The market is overpricing the Yankees at -186 (requiring 65% win probability) when our Bayesian posterior has them at 62.5%, yielding -4% EV on the ML. The real edge is on the total: the Omega independent model projects 22.5 runs — a massive 14-point gap from the market 8.5. Monte Carlo sims agree: 65.2% over. Sharp spread edge is 16.6% strong signal, but that's on the home spread; the White Sox +1.5 has a narrower 3.9pp edge from posterior vs market. The whales ($1.5M, 69% home side) are pushing the spread, not the total — the over is the quiet side. 30-day calibration shows totals in the 60-67 range have been profitable (71.4%, 10W-4L). Rodon-Kay matchup does not justify a 8.5 total given both bullpens are depleted.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on the spread is 16.6% with strong signal. Pinnacle de-vigged fair value on home spread cover is 46.2%, but Bovada offers +225 on home spread — that's +50.0% EV against fair value. Whales are heavily on home (69% conviction, $1.5M volume tier EXTREME). Prediction markets (62.5%) and sharp books (63.7%) nearly align. Contrarian confluence is building: the books shade toward Yankees ML, but sharps and whales are attacking the home spread.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Chicago White Sox 1.5
+3.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
-4.0 EV 55%
TOTAL over 8.5
+4.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
New York Yankees -186
  • No edge — book impled 65.0% vs our posterior 62.5%
  • Negative EV
  • Skip ML
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Chicago White Sox 1.5
  • Bayesian spread cover posterior: away 53.9% vs market 50.0% — +3.9pp edge
  • Omega independent line shows 0.0 spread vs market -1.5, implying the White Sox are undervalued by 1.5 points
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian total posterior: 65.2% over vs market 50.0% — +15.2pp edge
  • Omega independent total is 22.5, implying the market 8.5 is wildly mispriced toward under
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees -1.5 at model-projected line: Poisson projects 1.6-run win, rounding creates +2.1 EV; whales back NYY with $725K — 0.5u LEAN.
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