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NHL
Seattle Kraken
Seattle Kraken
Kraken
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
MONEYLINE
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
"SEA +235 ML value w/Hedman out (-8% TB win prob) + Under 6.5 (5.9 proj goals), +4.2 EV"
EV / $100
-3.2
Win Prob
32%
Edge
-18.0%
SPREAD Seattle Kraken +1.5 -110
59%
TOTAL Under 6.5
67%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Seattle Kraken

Tampa Bay Lightning

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - -290 / 240 ↑ -
Pinnacle - -284 / 241 -
Kambi - -286 / 240 -
Bovada Best Line -2.5 (145) - -
Pinnacle -1.5 (-110) ↓ - -
Bovada Best Line - - Over 3.5 (-150)
Pinnacle - - Over 6.5 (106)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Seattle Kraken

J
Jared McCann
(LW) out — McCann (lower body) is not expected to be an option for Tuesday's road matchup against the Panthers, according to Sound of Hockey.
Out
R
Ryan Winterton
(C) out — The Kraken announced Monday that Winterton (illness) will take a temporary leave of absence from the team to attend to a family matter.
Out
J
Jaden Schwartz
(C) out — out
Out
M
Max McCormick
(LW) out — McCormick will miss the entirety of the 2025-26 campaign after undergoing hip surgery, the team announced Tuesday.
Out

Tampa Bay Lightning

V
Victor Hedman
(D) out — Hedman (personal) is taking a temporary leave of absence, the Lightning announced Wednesday.
Out
M
Maxwell Crozier
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-lt
Injured Reserve
D
Declan Carlile
(D) Injured Reserve — Carlile (lower body) is expected to miss the next 4-5 weeks, the team announced Saturday.
Injured Reserve
D
Dominic James
(C) Injured Reserve — James (leg) will be sidelined for 8-10 weeks after undergoing surgery, Benjamin Pierce of the Lightning's official site reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Seattle Kraken @ Tampa Bay Lightning
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (145)
Total Over 3.5
Key Injuries
Jared McCann Out
Ryan Winterton Out
Victor Hedman Out
Maxwell Crozier Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Seattle Kraken @ Tampa Bay Lightning

+-3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Kraken 62% Lean
"SEA +235 ML value w/Hedman out (-8% TB win prob) + Under 6.5 (5.9 proj goals), +4.2 EV"
32% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 32%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -18.0%
Line Movement
Current TB -290 / SEA +235 | Spread TB -1.5 (-110) | Total 6.5
Movement No movement data
No ML edge; TB overpriced after injuries. Total 6.5 O/U shows mild under bias.
Model: 40.9% win rate | n=22 — Based on N=22 graded NHL outcomes; reduce confidence on favorites.
FULL ANALYSIS
Hedman out costs TB 0.4-0.5 xGA/60 while SEA loses McCann/Schwartz (25% forward scoring); model sees SEA ML 68% vs market 74% overprice (+6% edge). Under 6.5 projects 5.9 goals w/injury drag. Kucherov OVER 1.5 pts regardless (2.1 avg vs SEA).
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Seattle Kraken
-3.2 EV 62%
SPREAD Seattle Kraken +1.5 -110
+1.8 EV 59% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 6.5
+4.2 EV 67% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Tampa Bay Lightning -155
  • Tampa home with Kucherov (40G/79A) vs Kraken missing McCann/Schwartz (4 top-6 out), model win prob 62.5% vs implied 60.8%
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
Tampa Bay Lightning
  • Model expected 3.1-2.4 score = 1.1 spread edge after Hedman adjustment (-0.4 goals)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
UNDER 5.5 5.5
  • Double top-6 injuries both sides project 5.5 total (Tampa 3.1-2.4), 58% model under hit rate in injury spots
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tampa ML -155 (+3.1 EV): Kucherov vs Kraken missing McCann/Schwartz, model 62.5% win prob despite Hedman out
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