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NHL
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks
Ducks
Vegas Golden Knights
Knights
Vegas Golden Knights
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +27.5% EV
66% Sharp Lean
66% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights None
"Vegas moneyline at -192: Anaheim's critical injuries (-22.1% offensive impact) give the Knights a massive edge at home, with sharp money and +EV analysis confirming the value."
EV / $100
+3.3
Win Prob
68%
Edge
+2.2%
Size
1.0u
SPREAD Vegas Golden Knights -1.5
62%
TOTAL under 6.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 10.6% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2

Player Props Engine

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Anaheim Ducks

Vegas Golden Knights

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -183 / 158 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -180 / 158 -
Value Line - -182 / 155 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (215) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (136) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 3.5 (-130)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (-115)
De-Vigged Fair Value 147 / -147 -170 / 170 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Anaheim Ducks

A
A.J. Greer
(LW) day-to-day — Greer (upper body) took contact during Wednesday's practice, per Derek Lee of The Hockey News.
Day-To-Day
D
Drew Helleson
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
T
Troy Terry
(RW) Injured Reserve — Terry (hip) was moved from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Cavanagh of The Sporting Tribune reports.
Injured Reserve
I
Ian Moore
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve

Vegas Golden Knights

R
Raphael Lavoie
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Lukas Cormier
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (215)
Total Over 3.5
Key Injuries
A.J. Greer Day-To-Day
Drew Helleson Injured Reserve
Raphael Lavoie Day-To-Day
Lukas Cormier Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (+130) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-01T18:18:57.878707 UTC

Anaheim's -22.1% injury impact makes covering -1.5 more likely; Vegas home puck line historically profitable vs depleted teams

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-09-30T16:15:53.251086 UTC

Eichel is Vegas's primary offensive driver; with Anaheim missing top defender Troy Terry (forward, not defensive, but team-wide -22% impact suggests systemic weakness), Eichel's shot volume should increase. Model projection: 0.65 goals — above 0.5 line.

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights

+3.3 EV
per $100 wagered
Vegas Golden Knights 66% Sharp Lean
"Vegas moneyline at -192: Anaheim's critical injuries (-22.1% offensive impact) give the Knights a massive edge at home, with sharp money and +EV analysis confirming the value."
68% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 68%
Book Implied 66%
Edge +2.2%
Line Movement
Open Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (+130)
Current Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (+130)
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Anaheim Ducks have critical injuries to key players (Troy Terry, Drew Helleson), net injury impact favors Vegas by +12.7% Vegas Golden Knights are at home, with home ice advantage in NHL providing a consistent edge Anaheim Ducks are on the road with significant roster depletion, compounding their disadvantage
The model sees a 2.2pp edge on the Golden Knights moneyline, driven by a massive injury advantage for Vegas. Anaheim is missing Troy Terry and Drew Helleson, while Vegas is relatively healthy.
FULL ANALYSIS
This is a clear talent and health disparity game. Anaheim is missing Troy Terry and Drew Helleson, two key pieces, while Vegas is nearly full strength. The injury impact model shows a -22.1% hit to Anaheim's expected goals, which is massive. The sharp money is on Vegas, and the +EV analysis shows a huge +27.5% edge on the spread at Bovada. The moneyline at -192 is a fair price for a team with this big of a roster advantage at home. The under also has some appeal given Anaheim's offensive struggles, but totals are always volatile in NHL.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp money shows a 10.6% edge on the home side spread, a strong signal. The +EV analysis also shows a massive +27.5% EV on the home spread at Bovada, indicating retail books are mispricing this line.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Vegas Golden Knights None
+3.3 EV 66% 1.0u
SPREAD Vegas Golden Knights -1.5
+8.5 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.5
+2.0 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Vegas Golden Knights -192
  • Anaheim's critical injuries (Troy Terry, Drew Helleson) create a -22.1% impact on their expected goals, while Vegas is nearly full strength, giving the Knights a massive roster advantage
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Vegas Golden Knights -1.5
  • The +EV analysis shows a massive +27.5% EV on the home spread at Sharp Action, indicating a severe mispricing by the retail book
  • The sharp money signal is strong on this side
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 6.5
  • Sharp money shows a 3.0% edge on the under, and Anaheim's offense is severely compromised without Troy Terry
  • The total of 6.5 may be too high given the Ducks' expected scoring drop-off
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Anaheim -22% injury impact (Terry IR) vs Vegas -9.4% — net +12.6% home advantage. Model sees +4.3 EV on Vegas ML at -138.
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