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Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets
Jets
St. Louis Blues
Blues
St. Louis Blues
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues -0.5
"Blues ML -115 model edge (+1.8 EV) as Jets lose Barron/Nyquist depth in late season spot"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Blues None
57%
TOTAL under 5.5
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Winnipeg Jets

St. Louis Blues

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action - -115 / -105 ↑ -
Sharp Action -2.5 (360) - -
Sharp Action - - Over 1.5 (-130)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Winnipeg Jets

G
Gustav Nyquist
(RW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
M
Morgan Barron
(C) out — Barron (lower body) is week-to-week, according to Ken Wiebe of The Winnipeg Free Press on Monday.
Out
E
Elias Salomonsson
(D) out — out
Out
C
Colin Miller
(D) Injured Reserve — Miller (knee) has resumed skating but is not close to returning to the lineup, Mitchell Clinton of the Jets' official site reports Tuesday.
Injured Reserve

St. Louis Blues

No injuries reported
Game Preview
Winnipeg Jets @ St. Louis Blues
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (360)
Total Over 1.5
Key Injuries
Gustav Nyquist Day-To-Day
Morgan Barron Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Winnipeg Jets @ St. Louis Blues

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Blues 55% Lean
"Blues ML -115 model edge (+1.8 EV) as Jets lose Barron/Nyquist depth in late season spot"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.5%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current St. Louis -0.5 / Winnipeg +0.5 | Total 5.5 | ML St. Louis -115 / Winnipeg -105
Movement N/A - model generated
Jets multiple injuries (Nyquist DTD, Barron/others OUT) Neutral venue TBD Late season matchup
Marginal EV on Blues ML after vig removal; spreads show no edge >2%
Model: 47.5% win rate | n=297 — NHL record 141-156 (47.5% N=297); reduce lean tier confidence due to overconfidence gap
FULL ANALYSIS
Jets hammered by injuries (Barron OUT, Nyquist DTD, Miller IR) create Blues home edge in model-generated -115 ML (54.5% win prob). Poor data quality caps confidence at toss-up but EV +1.8% on Blues ML. Model totals 5.2 goals but totals losing historically across tiers.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Blues -0.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Blues None
+1.8 EV 57% 0.5u
TOTAL under 5.5
+0.9 EV 54%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
St. Louis Blues -115
  • Model 54.5% Blues win prob exceeds -115 breakeven (53.5%) by 1%; Jets injuries tilt edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
St. Louis Blues -0.5
  • Jets missing Barron + depth D (Miller IR), Blues home ice despite even model records vs both teams
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 5.5
  • Model projects 5.2 total goals; NHL late season + injuries suppress scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Blues ML -115 model edge (+1.8 EV) as Jets lose Barron/Nyquist depth in late season spot
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