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Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks
"Omega total 24.0 vs 7.5 (+16.5 edge) + ARI ML +5.8 EV undervalued vs DET -167"
EV / $100
+5.8
Win Prob
36%
Edge
-13.8%
Size
1u
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
65%
TOTAL Arizona Diamondbacks Over 7.5
75%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +167.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
36.2%
ML
176 / -176

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Tigers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Kambi - 135 / -167 ↑ -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Sweeney (shoulder) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Horn (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
S
Sawyer Gipson-Long
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Gipson-Long (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Brieske (groin) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
S
Scott Effross
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers reassigned Effross (oblique) to minor-league camp Wednesday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Phil Bickford
(RP) day-to-day — Bickford was shut down from throwing Tuesday due to a triceps strain, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers announced Friday that Melton (elbow) has started his throwing program, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) is scheduled to throw his first bullpen session of spring training Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) out — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

A
Adrian Del Castillo
(C) 10-day IL — Del Castillo (calf) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 10-day IL — Smith is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Tigers.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
M
Merrill Kelly
(SP) 15-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Kelly on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to left intercostal nerve irritation.
15-Day-IL
L
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Gurriel (knee) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Locklear (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) has begun throwing bullpen sessions off a mound, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Key Injuries
Trey Sweeney 10-Day-IL
Bailey Horn 15-Day-IL
Adrian Del Castillo 10-Day-IL
Kyle Amendt Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+5.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 68% Strong
"Omega total 24.0 vs 7.5 (+16.5 edge) + ARI ML +5.8 EV undervalued vs DET -167"
36% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 36%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -13.8%
Line Movement
Current DET -167 / ARI +138 / Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
ARI ML +138 offers +5.8 EV vs market overpricing DET at -167
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=75 — Based on N=75 MLB graded outcomes; recent 7d 34-32
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson/ELO pegs 12-12 explosion vs market's puny 7.5 total (+16.5 edge), ARI +138 crushed vs DET -167 when model sees even spread. ARZ injuries heavy but DET bullpen DTD chaos offsets; Skubal dominates K prop. Yesterday mixed 1-1 H2H supports fading DET ML overvalue.
SHARP MONEY
Omega ML -176 home vs market +138 = model detects sharp overreaction to DET favoritism
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks
+5.8 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
+3.2 EV 65% 0.5u
TOTAL Arizona Diamondbacks Over 7.5
+12.4 EV 75% 2u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 72%
Detroit Tigers -112
  • Omega ML +176 vs market -112 on 36% win prob = pricing disaster
SPREAD PICK
● 70%
Detroit Tigers +3.0
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -3.0 creates 3pt cushion on pick'em projection
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 24.0 24.0
  • Omega total 24.0 on 12-12 expected scores; no market total = model edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tigers +3/ ML -112 has +42 EV vs omega pick'em (0.0 spread) while Dbacks missing 4 key players including Merrill Kelly
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