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MLB
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +45.8% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics 1.5
"20-run model proj vs 8.5 total (+15pp over edge), Athletics value vs juiced PHI -175/1.5 RL"
EV / $100
+12.4
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
60%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1092887 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (82% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 254 trades Kalshi: 36 trades Largest: $39285
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +175.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
40.5%
ML
147 / -147

Player Props Engine

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Athletics

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -178 / 146 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -170 / 152 -
Value Line - -182 / 145 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (235) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (122) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 130 / -130 -162 / 162 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Athletics

M
Max Muncy
(3B) 10-day IL — Muncy (hand) has yet to resume baseball activities, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) was given a cortisone injection in his left hip May 1, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 10-day IL — Clarke (foot) has begun a running and hitting progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Shea Langeliers
(C) Paternity — Langeliers was placed on the paternity list Monday.
Paternity

Philadelphia Phillies

C
Christian McGowan
(RP) day-to-day — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Rene Pinto
(C) day-to-day — The Phillies signed Pinto to a minor-league contract Jan. 6.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — Backhus allowed one run on two hits across one inning of work as an opener Wednesday against the Cubs. He struck out one.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (235)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Max Muncy 10-Day-IL
Gunnar Hoglund 60-Day-IL
Christian McGowan Day-To-Day
Rene Pinto Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies

+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 62% Lean
"20-run model proj vs 8.5 total (+15pp over edge), Athletics value vs juiced PHI -175/1.5 RL"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current Runline PHI -1.5 -175 / Athletics +1.5 +144 | ML PHI -175 / Athletics +144 | Total 8.5 -110
Movement No significant movement
+15.2pp calibrated edge on over 8.5 with model projecting 20 runs
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project 10.2-9.8 (20 runs) vs 8.5 total for +15.2pp over edge, posteriors anchor 65% over. PHI -175 ML/RL juiced vs omega -147 and MC 48.5% home win, value Athletics +144 ML (+3.6pp edge) and +1.5 (spread edge 175 pts discrepancy). Phillies injuries -9.7% > Athletics -5.5%, net away boost; whales home extreme but Tier1 models diverge.
SHARP MONEY
ML sharp 1.3% away moderate, spread sharp 15.2% home strong; overall lean home but model diverges
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics 1.5
+12.4 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+2.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+20.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Athletics 144
  • Bayesian posterior 40% away vs devigged market 36.4% (+3.6pp); MC away win 42.7%
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Athletics 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 and MC margin +0.4 (home covers +0 at 48.5%) vs market PHI -1.5 implies 60%+ cover prob
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% (+15.2pp edge); omega/MC project 20-22 runs vs 8.5 line
About This Analysis

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Edge Summary
Phillies ML -147: $627k EXTREME whales at 83% conf create 2.4 EV despite injuries
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