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WNBA
Japan
Japan
Japan
Las Vegas Aces
Aces
Las Vegas Aces
Full Game Analysis
WNBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
JAPAN JAPAN -2.5
"Aces -6.9% scoring adj (Evans out) projects JAPAN -2.5 (54% cover, +2.1 EV); data-poor lean"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE JAPAN None
55%
TOTAL under 162.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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Japan

Las Vegas Aces

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
LAS -100 / JAP -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Japan @ Las Vegas Aces
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Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Japan @ Las Vegas Aces

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
JAPAN 57% Lean Raw
"Aces -6.9% scoring adj (Evans out) projects JAPAN -2.5 (54% cover, +2.1 EV); data-poor lean"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model Spread: JAPAN -2.5 (-110) / Las Vegas Aces +2.5 (-110); Total: 162.5 (-110); ML: JAPAN -120 / Las Vegas Aces +100
Movement No movement (pre-market)
Home injury disadvantage
+2.1 EV on JAPAN spread at model -110 (breakeven 52.4%, exceeds by 1.6%). ML skipped as confidence (54%) < breakeven +5% threshold.
FULL ANALYSIS
Model projects JAPAN 83-80.5 win (-2.5 spread) after -6.9% Aces lambda hit from Evans out (poor quality but directional). No market/MC/sharp data limits edge to lean tier despite historical lean spread profitability (58.2% WR). Props capped at 65 conf without lines; focus Aces stars + Japan leaders.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD JAPAN -2.5
+2.1 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE JAPAN None
+0.8 EV 55%
TOTAL under 162.5
+0.5 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
JAPAN -120
  • Model win prob 54% vs -120 breakeven 54.5%; marginal after injury adj
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
JAPAN -2.5
  • Aces -6.9% lambda adjustment from Dana Evans out creates 2.5pt model edge for JAPAN
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 162.5
  • Aces injury cascades to -6.9% home scoring; WNBA totals historically unprofitable (48.7% WR)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Aces -6.9% scoring adj (Evans out) projects JAPAN -2.5 (54% cover, +2.1 EV); data-poor lean
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