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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
San Diego Padres
Padres
San Diego Padres
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +46.6% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
"Cardinals +1.5/+149 ML value Bayesian +6.2pp & +EV fair 57.5% cover vs -181 juice, MC even matchup"
EV / $100
+49.5
Win Prob
42%
Edge
-8.2%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
42%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$208194 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 74 trades Kalshi: 2 trades Largest: $20000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +181.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
38.4%
ML
161 / -161

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Cardinals

San Diego Padres

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -177 / 145 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -168 / 151 -
Value Line - -186 / 148 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (245) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (127) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 135 / -135 -160 / 160 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

N
Nathan Church
(LF) day-to-day — The Cardinals announced that Church was removed from Wednesday's game against the Brewers due to a left leg contusion, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 10-day IL — Urias went 3-for-4 with a home run, three RBI and two runs scored in Monday's loss to the Nationals.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Pushard (knee) will need "several more" rehab appearances at Triple-A Memphis before being activated from the 10-day injured list, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Nootbaar (heels) is on track to begin a rehab assignment as soon as the week of May 10, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

San Diego Padres

J
Jake Cronenworth
(2B) 7-day IL — Cronenworth is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Angels.
7-day il
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — Wagner (oblique) began a minor-league rehab stint with Triple-A El Paso on Friday and went 1-for-2 with a walk and a run in his first game.
10-Day-IL
G
German Marquez
(SP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Marquez on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right forearm nerve irritation.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 60-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
N
Nick Pivetta
(SP) 15-day IL — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) remains limited to playing catch during his throwing program and hasn't yet been cleared for bullpen sessions, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (245)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Nathan Church Day-To-Day
Ramon Urias 10-Day-IL
Jake Cronenworth 7-day il
Will Wagner 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

+49.5 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 58% Lean
"Cardinals +1.5/+149 ML value Bayesian +6.2pp & +EV fair 57.5% cover vs -181 juice, MC even matchup"
42% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 42%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -8.2%
Line Movement
Current Padres -1.5 -181 / Cardinals +1.5 ~+160 (est), ML Padres -181 / Cardinals +149, Total 8.0
Movement No significant movement
Positive EV on Cardinals ML (+149), breakeven 40.2% vs our 41.8%; spread away cover +49.5 EV est at +160
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior flags +6.2pp value on Cardinals ML as market juices Padres to -181 vs omega -161/0 spread. MC 10k sims project razor-close 10.1-9.7 (49.4% home win), +EV spread away 57.5% cover. Over 8 has massive 65.2% posterior but totals 47.8% WR historically + no pitchers caps conviction. Extreme whale volume home ($207k) + sharp spread home split signals caution.
SHARP MONEY
ML sharp away (1.8% edge moderate), spread sharp home (15.1% strong); overall favors home but ML divergence
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
+49.5 EV 58% 1.0u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
+4.1 EV 42% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 42%
St. Louis Cardinals 149
  • Bayesian fusion +6.2pp edge on away ML (posterior 41.8% vs market 35.6%)
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
  • +EV analysis fair value 57.5% Cardinals cover vs market implied ~38.5% at +160
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over 8.0 (+15.2pp edge), MC projects 19.8 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Padres +181 ML +45 EV (our 51.7% >35.6% model implied), MC 74.5% under 22.5
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