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MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +53.0% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
"Rays +119 w/ 52.5% model win prob vs 45.7% implied (+6.8% edge); over 7.5 monster w/ projected 19.8 runs"
EV / $100
+5.8
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
62%
TOTAL over 7.5
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$679115 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 63 trades Kalshi: 654 trades Largest: $28500
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
31.0%
ML
223 / -223

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Tampa Bay Rays

Cleveland Guardians

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -141 / 118 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -135 / 122 -
Value Line - -155 / 123 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (310) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (156) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-116)
De-Vigged Fair Value 168 / -168 -129 / 129 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
TJ Nichols
(P) day-to-day — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham activated Morgan (quadricep) from its 7-day injured list Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
T
Tatem Levins
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
K
Keyshawn Askew
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Lux (shoulder/ankle) is expected to resume his rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Tuesday or Wednesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) is playing catch from 90 feet, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Pepiot's injured right hip felt "unstable" while the pitcher played catch Monday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays signed Grove to a major-league contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder surgery.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Englert
(RP) 15-day IL — Englert earned the save in Sunday's 5-4 win over the Yankees, allowing two earned runs on three hits and one walk while striking out one over one inning of relief.
15-Day-IL
G
Garrett Cleavinger
(RP) 15-day IL — Cleavinger (calf) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Sunday, walking three and giving up a three-run home run in one-third of an inning.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
S
Shawn Armstrong
(RP) 15-day IL — Armstrong struck out one over a scoreless inning to pick up a hold in Friday's 4-1 win over the Cubs.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (310)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Edwin Uceta 60-Day-IL
TJ Nichols Day-To-Day
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Shawn Armstrong 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians

+5.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 62% Lean
"Rays +119 w/ 52.5% model win prob vs 45.7% implied (+6.8% edge); over 7.5 monster w/ projected 19.8 runs"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.5%
Line Movement
Current CLE ML -143 / TB +119, RL CLE -1.5 -143, Total 7.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
Negative EV on home ML; value on away ML +11% edge (52.5% our prob vs 45.7% implied)
FULL ANALYSIS
Model projects pick'em spread (0.0) and 20-run total vs market CLE -1.5/-143 and 7.5, creating +EV on Rays RL and massive over. Bayesian posterior 52.5% Rays win beats +119 implied by 6.8%; MC confirms 48.1% away win, high agreement. Whales extreme on CLE ($679k) and sharps mixed reduce conf, equal injuries neutral.
SHARP MONEY
Strong sharp edge 14.4% on CLE spread, moderate 2.2% on TB ML; overall favors home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+5.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+14.2 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+28.4 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Tampa Bay Rays 119
  • Posterior 52.5% Rays win vs 45.7% implied (+6.8% >5% threshold), omega ML -223 vs market +119
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market CLE -1.5, MC margin -0.3 favors Rays cover +62% prob
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
OVER 7.5
  • Omega total 22.5 and MC projected 19.8 vs market 7.5, over ~99% prob
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Guardians +228 (46% our prob vs 30% omega-implied) + extreme $280k whales = +51 EV
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