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MLB
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +9.2% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 1.5
"MC 19.8 projected total vs 9.5 line (+15pp over edge), sharps/whales hammer Reds ML"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+9.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
61%
TOTAL over 9.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 5.0% divergence on ML with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$388028 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 124 trades Kalshi: 18 trades Largest: $30263
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +149.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
41.8%
ML
139 / -139

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Rockies

Cincinnati Reds

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -143 / 120 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -187 / 171 -
Value Line - -159 / 128 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (114) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 120 / -120 -180 / 180 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

W
Willi Castro
(2B) day-to-day — Castro (knee) remains out of the lineup for Tuesday's game in Cincinnati.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) 15-day IL — The Rockies placed Feltner on the 15-day injured list Friday with right ulnar nerve inflammation.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) will face live hitters over the weekend and begin a rehab assignment shortly thereafter, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nick Lodolo
(SP) 15-day IL — Lodolo (finger) will make his next rehab start Saturday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — The Reds assigned Ferguson (oblique) to Double-A Chattanooga to begin a rehab assignment Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
E
Eugenio Suarez
(3B) 10-day IL — The Reds placed Suarez (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to April 24.
10-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
A
Alex Young
(RP) out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (114)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Willi Castro Day-To-Day
Ryan Feltner 15-Day-IL
Hunter Greene 60-Day-IL
Nick Lodolo 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 60% Lean
"MC 19.8 projected total vs 9.5 line (+15pp over edge), sharps/whales hammer Reds ML"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +9.3%
Line Movement
Current CIN -1.5 -149 / COL +1.5 +125
Movement No significant movement
Slight negative EV on home ML per posterior; +9.2% EV vs Market Consensus fair value at softer lines
FULL ANALYSIS
MC sims 10.2-9.6 total crushes 9.5 line (65% over posterior) amid GABP factors and no pitchers. Sharp/whale extreme on Reds ML (-149) with 5% edge and Pinnacle fair 64%, boosting neutral 59% posterior. Rockies +1.5 value off omega even spread vs market -1.5, injuries net away edge (-2.3%). Degraded data caps conf.
SHARP MONEY
5.0% sharp edge on home ML + strong divergence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
+3.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
+1.8 EV 61% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.5
+22.1 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 61%
Cincinnati Reds -149
  • Sharp 5% edge + extreme whale volume $386K on home + Pinnacle fair 64.3% vs retail 59.8%
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Colorado Rockies 1.5
  • Omega spread at 0.0 vs market CIN -1.5, MC margin only +0.6 favors Rockies covering
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 9.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied, MC projects 19.8 total (10.2-9.6)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rockies ML +112 & +1.5: $125k extreme whales + Reds -11% injury lambda, +6.8 EV ML
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