MLS
Nashville SC
SC
New England Revolution
Revolution
Whale Activity Detected
$150713 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (91% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 106 trades
Largest: $10400
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
43.5%
ML
130 / -130
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGANashville SC
New England Revolution
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
2.1
Moneyline
NEW -136
/
NAS 136
Win Probability
58%
-
42%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Nashville SC @ New England Revolution
+30.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Nashville SC
57%
Lean
"Over 2.5 +14.9pp edge (64.9% posterior), omega 3.8-3.8 goals vs mkt 2.5; away spread +130 value at 57% prob"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
65%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+14.9%
Line Movement
Current
Nashville SC -0.5 (+130) / New England Revolution +0.5 (-185)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
+EV on over 2.5 (64.9% posterior vs 50% implied); home ML +20.7 EV at +180; away spread +30.9 EV at +130
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows +7.4pp home ML edge and +14.9pp over 2.5; omega even spread/ML but market overjuices away ML (-140) while offering +130 on away -0.5 (57% prob). Extreme $107k whales + Kalshi 67% confirm away lean for spread. Totals mismatch huge (omega 7.5 exp 7.6 goals); reduce conf on hist totals WR 48.7%, very low model agreement.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $107k from 18 profitable wallets at 90% confidence on away; aligns with prediction markets (Kalshi 67% away)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
43%
New England Revolution 180
- Home posterior 43.1% vs market 35.7% (+7.4pp Bayesian edge); omega ML home +130 fair
SPREAD PICK
○
57%
Nashville SC -0.5
- Away win posterior 56.9% vs +130 breakeven 43.5%; better price than ML -140
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
60%
OVER 2.5
- Over 2.5 posterior 64.9% vs 50% implied (+14.9pp); omega total 7.5, expected 3.8-3.8
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Omega 3.8-3.8 goals (+14.9pp over 2.5 EV $23.9) + home ML 43% vs 36% implied (+7.4pp $20.7 EV), away spread +EV $6.5 at +130
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