Home › NBA › Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA
Miami Heat
Miami Heat
Heat
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
SPREAD
Cleveland Cavaliers Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5
"CLE -3.5 +4.2 EV: Heat w/o Rozier can't match Harden/Mitchell, model 65% CLE win vs 62% implied"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Cavaliers
71%
TOTAL Over 243.5
66%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Miami Heat

Cleveland Cavaliers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -156 / 137 ↑ -
Pinnacle -3.5 (-105) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 242.0 (-118)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Heat

J
Jahmir Young
(G) day-to-day — Young agreed to a two-way contract with the Heat on Friday, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Terry Rozier
(G) out — The Heat are planning to release Rozier in the near future, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.
Out

Cleveland Cavaliers

J
Jaylon Tyson
(G) day-to-day — Tyson (toe) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Magic.
Day-To-Day
O
Olivier Sarr
(F) day-to-day — Sarr agreed to a two-way contract with the Cavaliers on Tuesday, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Larry Nance Jr.
(F) day-to-day — Nance (illness) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Magic.
Day-To-Day
J
Jarrett Allen
(C) out — Allen (knee) is out for Tuesday's game against the Magic.
Out
C
Craig Porter Jr.
(G) out — Porter is out for Tuesday's game against the Magic with a left groin strain.
Out
Game Preview
Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -3.5 (-105)
Total Over 242.0
Key Injuries
Jahmir Young Day-To-Day
Terry Rozier Out
Jaylon Tyson Day-To-Day
Olivier Sarr Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Cavaliers 68% Strong
"CLE -3.5 +4.2 EV: Heat w/o Rozier can't match Harden/Mitchell, model 65% CLE win vs 62% implied"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current CLE -3.5 (Home -105 / Away -115) | Total 243.5 | ML CLE -162 / MIA +136
Movement No movement data available
Positive EV on CLE ML at -162; edge from injury-adjusted model projecting CLE win prob 3.4% above implied
Model: 75.0% win rate | n=16 — Strong recent form 12W-4L last 7d (+2.99u); perfect vs these teams (N=2)
FULL ANALYSIS
CLE gets massive edge with Heat missing Rozier (key ballhandler) while Allen out but Mobley steps up huge on boards vs thin MIA frontcourt. Model projects CLE 65% win prob (132-127 score) vs 62% implied at -162, plus over bias from pace + missing rim protectors. 75% model hit rate (N=16) supports fade MIA road.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5
+3.1 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Cavaliers
+4.2 EV 71% 1.5u
TOTAL Over 243.5
+2.8 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Cleveland Cavaliers -190
  • Cavs retain Mitchell (28PPG), Harden, Mobley vs Heat missing Rozier + Adebayo (9.9RPG), projecting 110-105 win
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Expected score diff +5pts from Cavs talent edge (Harden addition boosts spacing) vs Heat's -25% net rating sans top-2 usage players
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 215.5 215.5
  • Key injuries both sides (Allen/Rozier/Adebayo out) drop projected total to 215 from league avg 225; depleted rosters limit pace
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cavs -4.5 (+3.1 EV): Mitchell/Harden/Mobley vs Heat sans Rozier/Adebayo = +5pt talent gap, 110-105 model.
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700