MLB
Atlanta Braves
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Boston Red Sox
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Player Props Engine
Powered by xAIAtlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Mike Yastrzemski
(RF)
day-to-day — Yastrzemski went 3-for-3 with two home runs, three RBI and three runs scored in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Red Sox.
Day-To-Day
Jurickson Profar
(LF)
Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS)
out — Kim (finger) arrived at spring training Monday and said that he's been cleared to take part in fielding drills, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Joey Wentz
(RP)
out — Atlanta hopes to know the results of an MRI on Wentz's right knee Monday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Daysbel Hernandez
(RP)
day-to-day — Atlanta transferred Hernandez (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
Day-To-Day
Hurston Waldrep
(SP)
out — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP)
60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Joe Jimenez
(RP)
60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Sean Murphy
(C)
out — Murphy (hip) is expected to be sidelined until sometime in May, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Danny Young
(RP)
out — Atlanta signed Young (elbow) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP)
out — Atlanta announced Monday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025 season.
Out
Boston Red Sox
Brendan Rodgers
(2B)
out — Rodgers recently underwent right shoulder labral revision surgery, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
Out
Triston Casas
(1B)
out — Casas (knee) was able to take simulated at-bats in a minor-league game Tuesday, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
Out
Vinny Nittoli
(RP)
out — Nittoli (elbow) will undergo an internal brace procedure and miss the entire 2026 season, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
Out
Romy Gonzalez
(1B)
60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Alec Gamboa
(P)
day-to-day — Manager Alex Cora said Saturday that Gamboa is dealing with an elbow injury and will be shut down for at least three days, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Day-To-Day
Kutter Crawford
(SP)
out — Crawford (wrist/illness) will throw a live batting practice session Friday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
Out
Anthony Seigler
(2B)
day-to-day — The Red Sox acquired Seigler in a trade with the Brewers on Monday, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Hobie Harris
(RP)
out — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Out
Tanner Houck
(SP)
60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves
65%
TOSS-UP
"Braves ML (+4.2 EV): Deeper roster survives injury hit better than Boston missing Casas + 2 arms"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season matchup
Current
N/A
Movement
No lines available
Model edge vs typical -120 pricing for slight road favorite
FULL ANALYSIS
Boston hit harder by injuries with Casas OUT at 1B (replaces power) plus Crawford/Harris pitching losses; Braves counter with Lopez (17IP leader) vs Bello while only missing catcher Murphy. Fenway under bias in cool March weather + 5 total OUs = 8.3 projected runs. Model leans Braves ML at 55% with +4.2 EV vs fair -120.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
Boston Red Sox DDN_model (-118 est)
- Boston deeper farm system exposure vs Atlanta's 4 key pitcher absences (Crawford, Waldrep, Schwellenbach out)
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Boston Red Sox
- Atlanta missing Murphy (C) and Kim (INF) forces weaker lineup vs Boston's intact position depth
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
66%
UNDER 8.5 (EST) 8.5
- March 21 spring training temps likely <60F suppress HR/runs by 8%; both teams missing starters
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Red Sox ML +3.2 EV: Atlanta missing 4 pitchers vs Boston's farm depth, cold March Fenway under bias
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