Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Jeremy Stephens @ King Green
Mixed Martial Arts
Jeremy Stephens
Jeremy Stephens
Stephens
King Green
Green
King Green
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
King Green King Green -1.5
"King Green ML -150 (omega_model) +3.3 EV on grappling mismatch vs rusty Stephens (-20% layoff)"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE King Green None
60%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Jeremy Stephens

King Green

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
KIN -100 / JER -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Jeremy Stephens @ King Green
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Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Jeremy Stephens @ King Green

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
King Green 57% Lean
"King Green ML -150 (omega_model) +3.3 EV on grappling mismatch vs rusty Stephens (-20% layoff)"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model ML: King Green -150 / Jeremy Stephens +150 | Spread: King Green -1.5 (-110) / Jeremy Stephens +1.5 (-110) | Total: 2.5 (-110)
Movement No movement (model-generated lines)
Slight edge vs model fair line after vig; home grappling advantage creates value
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian prior even at 50/50, but MMA model boosts King Green to 62% via grappling edge (Stephens TDD <50%, Green 1.9 TD/15min). Stephens at ~44yo with 5+yr layoff triggers -20% rust penalty. Data paucity limits to LEAN tier despite +3.3 EV on ML.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD King Green -1.5
+2.1 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE King Green None
+3.3 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
King Green -150
  • Green's TDD 68% + sub threat exploits Stephens' weak grappling defense (TDD <50% career)
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
King Green -1.5
  • Poisson-derived expected margin +1.8 favors home cover after 62% win prob fusion
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • Striker vs grappler = 55% finish rate inside distance (model sim 2.3 expected rounds)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Stephens vs Green 50/50 model pick'em; 0% Bayesian edge, PASS all games (-4.5 EV vig)
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