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Houston Astros
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New York Mets
Mets
Player Props Engine
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New York Mets
Injury Report
Houston Astros
Bennett Sousa
(RP)
out — Manager Joe Espada announced Thursday that Sousa will begin the regular season on the 15-day injured list due to a left oblique injury, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Out
Zach Dezenzo
(LF)
day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
Jeremy Pena
(SS)
out — Astros manager Joe Espada said Wednesday that Pena (finger) has resumed throwing and will start swinging a bat with both hands this weekend, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Out
Enyel De Los Santos
(RP)
day-to-day — Astros manager Joe Espada said that De Los Santos (knee) is slated to pitch in a game Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Josh Hader
(RP)
out — Astros manager Joe Espada said Wednesday that Hader (biceps) will begin the season on the injured list, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Out
Nate Pearson
(RP)
out — Astros manager Joe Espada said Tuesday that the team will "slow down" Pearson's throwing program after the pitcher felt soreness in his surgically repaired right elbow during his last bullpen session, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Out
Glenn Otto
(RP)
day-to-day — The Astros reassigned Otto (shoulder) and Ray Gaither (shoulder) to minor-league camp Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Hayden Wesneski
(SP)
out — Wesneski (elbow) agreed to a one-year, $975,000 deal with the Astros on Thursday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Out
Brandon Walter
(SP)
out — Walter (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Out
Ronel Blanco
(SP)
out — Blanco (elbow) was activated from the injured list Thursday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
Out
New York Mets
Francisco Alvarez
(C)
day-to-day — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday that Alvarez (back) is feeling "better" and could rejoin the Grapefruit League lineup Saturday if he continues to improve, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Francisco Lindor
(SS)
day-to-day — Lindor (hand) played four innings at shortstop while making his spring debut in Sunday's Grapefruit League game against the Blue Jays, but afterwards he wouldn't commit to being ready for Opening Day despite saying that he has "checked every single box," Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Justin Hagenman
(RP)
60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
A.J. Minter
(RP)
out — Minter (lat) hit 93 mph with his fastball in a live batting practice session Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Out
Brandon Waddell
(RP)
day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Robert Stock
(RP)
out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
Nate Lavender
(RP)
out — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Out
Grae Kessinger
(3B)
out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
Dedniel Nunez
(RP)
60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
Tylor Megill
(SP)
60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
Reed Garrett
(RP)
60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ New York Mets
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros
66%
TOSS-UP
"Astros -128 model fair (54% win prob) on Mets injury apocalypse missing Lindor/Alvarez/Minter vs deeper Houston roster + Brown dominance"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
1%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-49.5%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season game, no lines posted
Current
N/A
Movement
No movement - lines not available
Model fair ML -128 Astros vs typical -120 market pricing yields +EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Mets hammered by injuries w/ Lindor/Alvarez DTD+ and Minter/Lavender OUT - that's -18% projected lineup strength. Astros lose Pena but Hunter Brown (20K leader) anchors staff vs Mets depleted pen. Model spits 54% Astros win prob (-128 fair) w/ +3.2 EV per 100 at market pricing; under 8 also prints on injury/offense suppression.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
Houston Astros -118 (DDN_model fair)
- Astros superior depth with Mets missing Lindor (DT) + 4 outs; Astros lose Pena/Hader but retain core rotation edge early season
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Houston Astros
- Astros -1.5 covers 49% in model vs injury-weakened Mets pen (Minter out, Lavender out)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
66%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
- Combined injuries to 5+ arms (Hader/Minter out) suppress scoring; March MLB avg 7.2 runs/game vs April 8.5
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Astros ML -118 model fair (+3.2 EV) as Mets lose Lindor/Minter while Houston depth holds; early season under 8.0 bias
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