Home › NFL › Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
NFL
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
15 - 19
Final
Detroit Lions
Lions
Detroit Lions
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω DDN SI PICK EARLY VALUE
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Minnesota Vikings Minnesota Vikings 3.5
"OMEGA model has the Vikings by 3 at a 26% home win prob vs Detroit -3.5 — Vikings +3.5 (58) on a 4.5-point model under total."
EV / $100
+3.6
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+5.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Vikings None
60%
TOTAL under 45.5
55%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
5.0
Edge: +8.5
Total
40.5
Edge: -5.0
Win Prob
26.1%
ML
284 / -284
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at -3.5, just past 3. 14.8% of NFL games land on 3. If your book offers -3.0, take it at up to -125.

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Minnesota Vikings

Detroit Lions

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -175 / 150 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -182 / 162 -
Value Line - -286 / 215 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.5 (110) - -
Market Consensus -3.5 (102) ↓ - -
Value Line -3.5 (-225) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 45.5 (-115)
Market Consensus - - Over 46.0 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 107 / -107 -173 / 173 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Minnesota Vikings

A
Aaron Jones Sr.
(RB) active — Jones rushed five times for 22 yards and brought in both targets for 18 yards in the Vikings' 19-15 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Active
J
Jordan Mason
(RB) active — Mason rushed eight times for 20 yards in the Vikings' 19-15 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Active
J
Justin Jefferson
(WR) active — Jefferson brought in five of nine targets for 33 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings' 19-15 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Active
K
Kyler Murray
(QB) questionable — Murray completed 17 of 29 passes for 210 yards with two touchdowns and one interception and rushed four times for 35 yards in the Vikings' 19-15 loss to the Lions on Sunday. He also threw a two-point conversion pass and dealt with hamstring tightness during the game, per Alec Lewis of The Athletic.
Questionable
T
Theo Jackson
(S) questionable — Jackson (quadriceps) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Lions.
Questionable
M
Max Brosmer
(QB) out — Brosmer (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Vikings' emergency third quarterback against the Lions on Sunday.
Out
J
Jauan Jennings
(WR) active — Jennings elected to remain with the Vikings after the team had an agreement in place to move him to the 49ers earlier in the week in a deal that was contingent on the receiver's approval, Jay Glazer reported on "Fox NFL Sunday."
Active
J
Jakobe Thomas
(S) out — inactive
Out
C
Caleb Tiernan
(OT) out — inactive
Out
E
Elijah Williams
(DE) out — inactive
Out
D
Demond Claiborne
(RB) out — inactive
Out
C
Charles Demmings
(CB) out — inactive
Out
J
Jay Ward
(S) active
Active
D
DeeJay Dallas
(RB) active — The Vikings elevated Dallas from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Active
G
Gavin Bartholomew
(TE) active
Active
B
Brian O'Neill
(OT) active
Active
J
Joe Huber
(G) active
Active
B
Blake Cashman
(LB) active — Cashman recorded 12 tackles (8 solo) including 2.0 sacks and four passes defensed during Sunday's 16-10 win versus the Colts.
Active
H
Harrison Smith
(S) active — Smith recorded four tackles (two solo) including 0.5 sacks and an interception during Sunday's 16-10 win versus the Colts.
Active
T
T.J. Hockenson
(TE) active — Hockenson caught four of five targets for 35 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts.
Active
J
Jordan Addison
(WR) active — Addison caught two of three targets for 20 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts. He added three yards on his lone carry.
Active
W
Will Reichard
(PK) active — Reichard went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and made his only PAT during Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts.
Active
M
Myles Price
(WR) active — Price (head) was back on the field for the second quarter of Sunday's game against the Colts, Ben Goessling of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Active
C
Christian Darrisaw
(OT) active — Darrisaw (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Craig Peters of the Vikings' official site reports.
Active
J
James Pierre
(CB) active
Active

Detroit Lions

J
Jack Campbell
(LB) doubtful — Campbell (neck) will remain in a local hospital Sunday night.
Doubtful
A
Amon-Ra St. Brown
(WR) active — St. Brown secured seven of eight targets for 46 yards and rushed once for 10 yards in the Lions' 19-15 win over the Vikings on Sunday.
Active
J
Jahmyr Gibbs
(RB) active — Gibbs rushed 23 times for 153 yards and a touchdown while bringing in two of four targets for 15 yards in the Lions' 19-15 win over the Vikings on Sunday.
Active
J
Jimmy Rolder
(LB) questionable — Rolder did not return to Sunday's game against the Vikings after sustaining a hamstring injury in the third quarter.
Questionable
C
Cade Mays
(C) questionable — Mays (ankle) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Vikings, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.
Questionable
D
D.J. Reed
(CB) questionable — Reed (hip) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Dolphins.
Questionable
J
Jacob Saylors
(RB) questionable — Saylors (neck) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Vikings, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.
Questionable
B
Brian Branch
(S) questionable — Branch (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Questionable
D
DJ Wonnum
(LB) questionable — Wonnum (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Questionable
R
Roger McCreary
(CB) active — McCreary (foot) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Active
M
Mekhi Wingo
(DT) out — inactive
Out
S
Seth McLaughlin
(C) out — inactive
Out
J
Jackson Meeks
(WR) out — inactive
Out
A
Ahmed Hassanein
(DE) out — inactive
Out
B
Bishop Fitzgerald
(S) out — inactive
Out
E
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
(CB) active — Rakestraw (ankle) does not have a game designation for Sunday's Week 8 tilt versus the Vikings.
Active
K
Kerby Joseph
(S) out — Joseph (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Out
I
Isiah Pacheco
(RB) Injured Reserve — Lions coach Dan Campbell said Friday that Pacheco (back) has a chance to return in late December, Justin Rogers of DetroitFootball.net reports.
Injured Reserve
T
Tyleik Williams
(DT) active
Active
I
Isaac TeSlaa
(WR) active — TeSlaa caught one of his two targets for 10 yards in the Lions' 20-17 win over the Packers on Sunday.
Active
S
Sam LaPorta
(TE) active — LaPorta caught one of two targets for 18 yards in Sunday's 20-17 win over the Packers.
Active
J
Jameson Williams
(WR) active — Williams caught five of nine targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 20-17 win over Green Bay.
Active
J
Jared Goff
(QB) active — Goff completed 22 of 32 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 20-17 win over the Packers.
Active
J
Jake Bates
(PK) active — Bates went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made both of his PATs during Sunday's 20-17 win over the Packers.
Active
R
Rock Ya-Sin
(CB) active — Ya-Sin (hamstring) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Packers.
Active
Box Score
FINAL
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
15
-
Detroit Lions
Lions
19
Minnesota Vikings 3.5
58% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Minnesota Vikings 3.0 (-102) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T16:36:27.382161 UTC

OMEGA expected score (25.5-17.3) favors Minnesota outright while market lays only -3 with Detroit; +3 on a key number at -102 instead of -118 reduces price risk.

Moneyline: Minnesota Vikings (+142) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T11:10:12.314641 UTC

At +142, breakeven is 41.3%; OMEGA scoring model win probability for the road side (~58% from expected score 25.5-17.3) clears breakeven by 16 points.

Player Prop: over (-110) LOSS · Recorded 2026-10-30T17:42:54.406429 UTC

Model projection: Jefferson remains Minnesota's clear WR1 with 6-0 team efficiency and should see elevated targets in a likely negative game script trailing Detroit

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

+3.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota Vikings 58% Lean
"OMEGA model has the Vikings by 3 at a 26% home win prob vs Detroit -3.5 — Vikings +3.5 (58) on a 4.5-point model under total."
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 54%
Edge +5.9%
Line Movement
Current Detroit -3.5 (-102 home / -118 away), Total 45.5, ML: Detroit -175 / Minnesota +145
Vikings +3.5 at -118: our 60% cover probability vs 54.1% implied yields roughly +$3.6 per $100. Marginal but positive edge. The huge ML discrepancy (OMEGA 73.9% away vs 40.8% implied on +145) is flagged as a model/market divergence, not a lock.
FULL ANALYSIS
Biggest quantitative divergence on this slate — OMEGA's Poisson+ELO blend makes the Vikings a 3-point win (22.9-17.6) versus a market that prices Detroit -3.5 at Ford Field, a gap too big to fully trust so confidence stays LEAN across the board. Both model totals ($40.5 OMEGA, $41.4 decomposed) point 4+ under the 45.5 number in a matchup where Detroit's defense is missing Jack Campbell (doubtful) and D.J. Reed (questionable), yet the model's own prior on totals is historically its weakest market. Vikings +3.5 at -118 is the cleanest position; the +145 ML is a better-priced but lower-trust version of the same read given Detroit's 4-0 home split.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Minnesota Vikings 3.5
+3.6 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Vikings None
+12.7 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 45.5
+5.4 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Minnesota Vikings 145
  • OMEGA model gives 26.1% home win probability, implying ~74% away, versus 40.8% implied on the +145 — the largest model-market gap in this game
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Minnesota Vikings 3.5
  • OMEGA scoring model+team strength projects Minnesota stronger than a -3.5 underdog line (home win prob 26.1%, edge 8.5 vs market), so +3.5 is a full point of buffer beyond the model line
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 45.5
  • OMEGA total and decomposed-ratings predicted total 41.4 both sit 4-5 points under the 45.5 market number
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Lions -3 at -120: OMEGA line is -8, market sits on key number 3, model shows +4.5 EV per 100
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