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MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +44.2% EV
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
"Over 9 +15.2pp Bayesian edge (65% posterior) on 20-run MC proj vs market 9; PIT -1.5 sharp steam +44EV"
EV / $100
+8.5
Win Prob
50%
Edge
+0.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
52%
TOTAL over 9.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 17.3% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$424182 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 246 trades Kalshi: 101 trades Largest: $22543
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +112.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
36.6%
ML
173 / -173

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Pittsburgh Pirates

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -106 / -114 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -101 / -109 -
Value Line - -106 / -118 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-380) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-162) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value -153 / 153 104 / -104 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) allowed one earned run on five hits and one walk while striking out two across 3.0 innings and 54 pitches in a rehab outing with Triple-A Indianapolis on Wednesday, Jared Greenspan of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) Suspension — Devenski's suspension for intentionally throwing at Sal Stewart during Saturday's game versus the Reds has been reduced to two games, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Suspension
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day

Arizona Diamondbacks

C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — Santana (thigh) is continuing to rehab at Triple-A Reno and will be evaluated by the end of the week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 60-day IL — Smith (elbow) will take dry swings next week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 60-day IL — Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks assigned Locklear (elbow) to a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League on Saturday, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) out — Vukovich is expected to miss roughly 2-3 months with a left shoulder injury, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Out
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-380)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Jared Jones 60-Day-IL
Chris Devenski Suspension
Carlos Santana 10-Day-IL
Pavin Smith 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+8.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 57% Lean
"Over 9 +15.2pp Bayesian edge (65% posterior) on 20-run MC proj vs market 9; PIT -1.5 sharp steam +44EV"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +0.5%
Line Movement
Current Spread: PIT -1.5 -112 | ML: PIT -112 / ARI -108 | Total: 9.0 -110
Movement No significant line movement detected
net_injury_advantage_home (+2.8%)
Slight +2.5pp edge vs de-vigged market prior on PIT ML, approx +2.1 EV at -112
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior shows +15.2pp over edge at 9.0 with OMEGA/MC projecting 20-22.5 runs vs market 9 amid high decomposed ratings. Sharps hammer PIT run line (17.3% edge, +44EV retail) despite even 0.0 OMEGA spread and MC 45.2% away cover at pick'em. Whale extreme volume ($422K) on ARI ML contradicts sharps; net injury edge +2.8% home but pass juiced ML (our 50.5% < 52.8% breakeven).
SHARP MONEY
17.3% sharp edge on spread away side + +44.2% EV on away spread at retail books
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
+8.5 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
+2.1 EV 52%
TOTAL over 9.0
+13.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 52%
Pittsburgh Pirates -112
  • Bayesian fusion posterior +2.5pp edge on away ML (50.5% vs market prior 48.1%)
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
  • Strong sharp divergence 17.3% on away spread + 44.2% EV vs Pinnacle fair value (away 39.5%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 9.0
  • Huge +15.2pp Bayesian posterior edge on over (65.2% vs 50% market prior) with OMEGA/MC projecting 20-22.5 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dbacks -2.2 spread w/ 13.6% sharp edge + $40k whale steam despite flat 56% model posterior
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