Serie A
Atalanta
Atalanta
Cagliari
Cagliari
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAAtalanta
Cagliari
Model Lines
MODELSpread
-1.8
Moneyline
CAG 129
/
ATA -129
Win Probability
44%
-
56%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Atalanta @ Cagliari
+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Atalanta
58%
Lean
"Atalanta -0.5 (-145): DDN 2-0 vs Cagliari + 62% prob beats 59% breakeven, +3.8 EV"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
62%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+12.0%
Line Movement
Current
Atalanta -0.5 (-145), Cagliari +0.5 (+105); ML Atalanta -135 / Cagliari +330; Total 2.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected
+4.1 EV on Atalanta ML at -135 (breakeven 57.4%, our prob exceeds by 4.6%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Atalanta's class edge over Cagliari (DDN 2-0 historical) gives 62% win prob vs market 57%, +3.8 EV on -0.5 spread despite -145 price. Low GPG leaders (Krstovic 0.34, Esposito 0.19) project under 2.5 total at 55% conf, reduced for missing MC/Poisson. Poor 21% data quality caps all plays at lean tier.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
59%
Atalanta -135
- 62% model prob exceeds -135 breakeven 57.4% by 4.6%; DDN 2-1 vs Atalanta but 2-0 vs Cagliari
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Atalanta -0.5
- DDN model 2-0 vs Cagliari historically, our 62% prob beats 59% spread breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Serie A avg 2.4 goals/game, leaders show low GPG (Krstovic 0.34, Esposito 0.19)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Atalanta ML -135 (+2.7 EV): superior squad + DDN 2-0 vs Cagliari in 59% model prob
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