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MLB
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV
68% Strong
68% Strong
SPREAD
Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs -1.5
"Cubs spread (-1.5) at 68% confidence: Brown (2.01 ERA) vs Leahy (4.44) gives Chicago a 62.7% win probability per Monte Carlo, with sharp money confirming the edge (+18.9% on spread). Over 8.0 also has value (65.2% Bayesian posterior)."
EV / $100
+8.6
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+0.4%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago Cubs None
65%
TOTAL over 8.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$370338 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 162 trades Kalshi: 37 trades Largest: $20000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
36.5%
ML
174 / -174

Player Props Engine

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Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 116 / -139 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 121 / -133 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-350) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-143) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-113)
De-Vigged Fair Value -135 / 135 127 / -127 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

M
Matthew Boyd
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyd (knee) will make a rehab start with Triple-A Iowa on Sunday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Edward Cabrera
(SP) 15-day IL — Cabrera was removed from Wednesday's game against the Brewers with a blister on his right middle finger, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Matt Shaw
(RF) 10-day IL — Shaw went 3-for-4 with a double, a solo home run and an additional run scored in Wednesday's 5-4 win over the Padres.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Harvey
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Birdsell
(RP) day-to-day — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeff Brigham
(RP) day-to-day — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Steele
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Steele's (elbow) setback will keep him sidelined until after the All-Star break, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Porter Hodge
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jaxon Wiggins
(SP) day-to-day — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Riley Martin
(RP) 15-day IL — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Shelby Miller
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cade Horton
(SP) 60-day IL — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Austin
(1B) 60-day IL — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

St. Louis Cardinals

N
Nathan Church
(LF) 10-day IL — Church (shoulder) received clearance from a specialist Tuesday to start a plyometric and strengthening program, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 10-day IL — Urias' (elbow) resumption of a throwing program is considered imminent, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — The Cardinals are eyeing June 1 as a target date for Nootbaar's (heels) activation from the 60-day injured list, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-350)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Matthew Boyd 15-Day-IL
Edward Cabrera 15-Day-IL
Nathan Church 10-Day-IL
Ramon Urias 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

+8.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Chicago Cubs 68% Strong
"Cubs spread (-1.5) at 68% confidence: Brown (2.01 ERA) vs Leahy (4.44) gives Chicago a 62.7% win probability per Monte Carlo, with sharp money confirming the edge (+18.9% on spread). Over 8.0 also has value (65.2% Bayesian posterior)."
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 53%
Edge +0.4%
Line Movement
Current CHC -136 / STL +113 / Total 8.0
Movement No significant movement detected
Starting pitcher mismatch: Brown (2.01 ERA) vs Leahy (4.44 ERA) Wind 8 mph out to CF — slight over bias 85F temperature — neutral for MLB Both teams have multiple day-to-day injuries, roughly equal impact Cubs 13-16 on the road, Cardinals 14-13 at home
Tiny edge on the Cubs moneyline. The calibrated (53.4%) barely exceeds the market-implied 53.0%. This is a marginal +0.3pp edge — not actionable alone, but the sharp money signal (+18.9% on spread) and simulation (62.7% away win) suggest the market may be mispricing the Cubs' true win probability.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Cubs are a sharp play here. Ben Brown (2.01 ERA) is a legitimate ace, while Kyle Leahy (4.44 ERA) is a below-average starter. The Monte Carlo simulation gives Chicago a 62.7% win probability — far above the market-implied 53.0%. Sharp money is heavily on the away side (18.9% edge on spread, strong signal). The total of 8.0 is too low given the pitching mismatch and 8 mph wind out — the Bayesian posterior gives over 65.2% at 8.0, a +15.2pp edge. The only concern is the Poisson model's inflated scoring estimate (22.5), but even a conservative projection puts this game at 8.5-9.5 runs. Take the Cubs on the spread (-1.5) and the over 8.0.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 18.9% with strong signal. Pinnacle fair value on the spread (away 42.6%) diverges significantly from the market line. Whale money is on the home side ($319K volume, 64% confidence) but that's likely retail/public money — the sharp books are leaning away. Monte Carlo gives away 62.7% win probability, far above the market-implied 53.0%.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Chicago Cubs -1.5
+8.6 EV 68% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago Cubs None
+0.8 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL over 8.0
+6.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Chicago Cubs -136
  • Bayesian posterior (53.4%) barely exceeds market-implied 53.0% — only a +0.3pp edge
  • But Monte Carlo (62.7% away win) and sharp money signal (+18.9% on spread) suggest the true edge is larger
  • The pitching mismatch (Brown 2.01 vs Leahy 4.44) is the primary driver
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Chicago Cubs -1.5
  • Monte Carlo gives Cubs 62.7% win probability vs market-implied ~53% — a 9.7pp edge on the moneyline, and the spread at -1.5 is even more favorable given the pitching mismatch
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.0
  • Bayesian posterior gives over 65.2% at 8.0 — a massive +15.2pp edge
  • The Monte Carlo simulation projects 8.5-10.5 runs (total 19.0), far above 8.0
  • The pitching mismatch (Brown 2.01 vs Leahy 4.44) should lead to runs, and wind 8 mph out helps
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bovada mispriced Cardinals spread at +250 vs Pinnacle 42.4% — +48.4% EV with sharp money and whale confirmation; take before market corrects.
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