MLS
Inter Miami CF
CF
FC Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Whale Activity Detected
$241286 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (83% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 49 trades
Kalshi: 309 trades
Largest: $20000
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
41.1%
ML
143 / -143
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAInter Miami CF
FC Cincinnati
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-1.3
Moneyline
FC 120
/
INT -120
Win Probability
45%
-
55%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Inter Miami CF @ FC Cincinnati
+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
FC Cincinnati
59%
Lean
"FC Cincinnati +195 ML +12.1 EV (38% model vs 34% breakeven) on whale steam + Bayes edge, over 3.5 crushes low total"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
38%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-12.0%
Line Movement
Current
Inter Miami CF -0.5 (+100 FC Cincinnati side) / Total 3.5 / ML FC Cincinnati +195 / Inter Miami CF -105
Movement
No significant line movement detected
+12.1 EV on FC Cincinnati ML at +195 (38% model prob vs 33.9% breakeven); over 3.5 has +13.7pp edge projecting 7.6 total goals
FULL ANALYSIS
Market total 3.5 lags omega 7.5/3.8-3.8 expected amid Dixon-Coles 6.4 each; home ML +4.1pp Bayes edge at +195 (EV+12) confirmed by extreme whales ($239k 83% home) and MC 40.1% win. Spread home +0.5 ~59% fusing draw prob 18.7%. Degraded data caps conf, favor ML underdog value.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($238k, 83% on home) from 6 profitable wallets aligns with Bayesian +4.1% home edge and MC 40.1% home win
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
39%
FC Cincinnati 195
- Bayesian posterior 38% home win vs market 33.9% implied (+4.1pp edge), MC 40.1%, whales 83% conviction extreme volume
SPREAD PICK
○
59%
FC Cincinnati 0.5
- Omega spread even vs market Inter Miami -0.5 (0.5pt edge) + MC home cover +0.0 at 40.1% fuses to ~59% cover prob on +0.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
59%
OVER 3.5
- Posterior 63.7% over 3.5 vs 50% implied (+13.7pp), omega total 7.5/expected 3.8-3.8 vs low market total
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Whales dump $200k extreme vol on FC Cincy +195 (+4% Bayesian edge); model crushes 3.5 total (7.5 omega proj, +13.7pp over)
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