Home › MLB › Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
MLB
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Sox
5 - 6
Final
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians -1.5
"White Sox moneyline offers slight edge (+3.15 EV) with sharp alignment, but injury clouds and data degradation keep confidence low."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+1.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
60%
TOTAL over 8.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
33.3%
ML
200 / -200

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -113 / -107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 118 -
Value Line - -136 / 108 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-440) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (158) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 170 / -170 -125 / 125 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago White Sox

M
Munetaka Murakami
(1B) 10-day IL — Manager Will Venable said Monday that Murakami (hamstring) traveled with the team for its road trip and is considered day-to-day, but the White Sox haven't yet established a timeline for the first baseman to begin a rehab assignment, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Everson Pereira
(RF) 7-day IL — Pereira (concussion) is making progress in his recovery but is still experiencing concussion symptoms, MLB.com reports.
7-Day IL
T
Tyler Gilbert
(RP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Gilbert on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left shoulder impingement.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 60-day IL — Hays has been pulled off his rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte due to a recurrence of left calf soreness, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Leasure
(RP) 60-day IL — Leasure (forearm) said Friday that he will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — Bush (elbow) had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to return until the second half of the season, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 60-day IL — Thorpe (elbow) recently underwent an appendectomy but has resumed throwing, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 60-day IL — Berroa is dealing with right elbow inflammation and will have his rehab stint paused, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Murray
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

J
Jose Ramirez
(3B) 10-day IL — Ramirez had stitches removed from his left hand Tuesday and could soon begin swinging a bat as the next step in his rehab process, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Martinez
(LF) 10-day IL — Martinez (foot) has shed his walking boot, is playing catch and hitting off a batting tee, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Chicago White Sox
Sox
5
-
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
6
Cleveland Guardians -1.5
55% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

+2.89 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 55% Lean
"White Sox moneyline offers slight edge (+3.15 EV) with sharp alignment, but injury clouds and data degradation keep confidence low."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 52%
Edge +1.6%
Line Movement
Current Spread: 1.5 (Home -1.5), Total: 8.5, ML: Home -111 / Away -109
Movement No significant movement detected
Key injuries: Jose Ramirez (CLE) and Munetaka Murakami (CWS) out Data quality degraded (67%)
Positive edge on away moneyline, but small. Model and sharp money align.
FULL ANALYSIS
Guardians missing Jose Ramirez severely impacts lineup, while White Sox are without Murakami. Model overestimates scoring (Omega total 22.5) but still leans over. Sharp money sides with White Sox on spread and ML, though contradictions exist. Data quality warnings reduce confidence across all picks. Small edges on spread and ML, but caution advised.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 18.4% on spread favoring away, diverging from retail books. Prediction markets slightly higher on home, but whales on home, creating mixed signals. Overall sharp leans away.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians -1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
+3.1 EV 60% 1u
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Chicago White Sox -109
  • Model 53.8% win probability vs market 52.15%, giving +1.65pp edge
  • Sharp money aligns
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Cleveland Guardians -1.5
  • Bayesian posterior gives 53.9% cover probability, slightly above breakeven at -110
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over, strong edge vs market 50%
  • Monte Carlo also projects high scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Under 22.5 runs: Both teams missing power bats (Ramirez, Murakami), Monte Carlo says under 71.5% — 21.5pp edge vs market prior despite degraded data
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