Serie A
Bologna
Bologna
2
-
0
LIVE
Cremonese
Cremonese
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGABologna
Cremonese
Model Lines
MODELSpread
—
Moneyline
CRE -100
/
BOL -100
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Bologna @ Cremonese
+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Bologna
64%
Sharp Lean
"Bologna 12-6-12 record edge vs Cremonese 6-9-15 (+4.5% prob edge at -115 ML, +3.2 EV)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
58%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+8.0%
Line Movement
Open
No open line available
Current
Spread: BOL -0.5 (Home -155 / Away +115); Total: 2.5; ML: Home +220 / Away -115
Movement
No movement data
Modest edge on Bologna ML vs -115; breakeven 53.5% but model projects 58% (beats by 4.5%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bologna's 12W record dominates Cremonese's 6W slump, projecting 58% win vs market 53.5% at -115 ML (+3.2 EV/$100). Low goal leaders (Orsolini 7G/28, Bonazzoli 6G/27) favor under 2.5 in tight Serie A spot. Spread -0.5 offers best value at current vig; avoid heavy juice.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
66%
Bologna 105
- Model prob 58% vs +105 implied 48.8%, exceeds breakeven by 9.2%; tier calibration shows ML profitable
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Bologna -0.5
- Bologna's superior Serie A quality vs promoted Cremonese, Orsolini 7 goals in 28 matches
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 2.5
- Serie A avg 2.45 goals/game, leaders max 7 goals in 28 matches signals low scoring
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Bologna +105 ML +6.3 EV (58% model vs 51% implied), Orsolini firepower vs Cremonese promotion fragility
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