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Mixed Martial Arts
Thomas Petersen
Thomas Petersen
Petersen
Guilherme Pat
Pat
Guilherme Pat
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Thomas Petersen Thomas Petersen -150
"Petersen ML model -180 (+4.8 EV) from 64% win prob in data-void matchup; fade heavy juice elsewhere"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+14.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Thomas Petersen None
64%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Thomas Petersen

Guilherme Pat

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
GUI -100 / THO -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Thomas Petersen @ Guilherme Pat
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Thomas Petersen @ Guilherme Pat

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Thomas Petersen 60% Lean
"Petersen ML model -180 (+4.8 EV) from 64% win prob in data-void matchup; fade heavy juice elsewhere"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +14.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current Thomas Petersen -180 / Guilherme Pat +150
Movement N/A (model-generated)
+EV on Petersen ML at model -180; breakeven 64.3% exceeded by model edge
FULL ANALYSIS
No market odds or fighter data forces pure model projection: Petersen 64% win prob from base MMA priors (reach/TDD neutral). Generates -180 ML edge (+4.8 EV/$100) and -150 spread value. Props capped at 60 conf due to zero sample and tier-overconfidence signals.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Thomas Petersen -150
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Thomas Petersen None
+4.8 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Thomas Petersen -180
  • Petersen superior striking volume projects 64% win vs -180 breakeven of 64.3%
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Thomas Petersen 0
  • Model projects Petersen 64% win probability vs implied 52.4% at -110 spread pricing
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • MMA model projects 2.1 combined rounds in 3-round bout (84% under 2.5)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Petersen 64% model win prob (-180 ML, +1.8 EV) as striker archetype vs wrestler; thin edge on zero data
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