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Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings
Minnesota Vikings
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV LATE TO MARKET
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Minnesota Vikings Minnesota Vikings -10.0
"OMEGA -24 vs market -10 gives 14 pts model value on 3-0 Vikings, capped at 64 for display"
EV / $100
+21.0
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+10.8%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Vikings None
50%
TOTAL under 38.5
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 8.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$239454 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (73% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 50 trades Kalshi: 171 trades Largest: $19428
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-24.0
Edge: -14.0
Total
38.5
Win Prob
96.2%
ML
-2546 / 2546
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at -10.0 — 5.8% of NFL games land on 10. Buying the half point is worth ~2.9% win probability. Pay up to -120 for the buy. OMEGA line (-24.0) disagrees by 14.0 pts — added value in the half-point buy.

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Miami Dolphins

Minnesota Vikings

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -650 / 450 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -621 / 465 -
Sharp Action Best Line -17.5 (235) - -
Market Consensus -10.0 (-101) ↓ - -
Value Line -10.0 (-114) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 38.5 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 105 / -105 -564 / 564 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Dolphins

C
Carlos Washington Jr.
(RB) active — The Dolphins signed Washington from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.
Active
R
Robert Beal Jr.
(DE) out — Beal (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Vikings, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports.
Out
C
Chris Bell
(WR) active — Bell (knee) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Vikings, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
Active
A
Aaron Brewer
(C) active
Active
T
Tucker Addington
(LS) active
Active
K
Kenneth Grant
(DT) Injured Reserve — Head coach Jeff Hafley said Friday that Grant (leg) could begin practicing next week, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports.
Injured Reserve
C
Caleb Douglas
(WR) out — Douglas (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Vikings, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports.
Out
J
Jaylen Wright
(RB) active — Wright (foot/stinger) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Emily Leiker of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Active
S
Storm Duck
(CB) out — The Dolphins opened Duck's (knee) 21-day practice window Wednesday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
Out
J
Jordyn Brooks
(LB) active — Brooks made 10 tackles (three solo) in the Dolphins' 24-10 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Active
J
Jacob Rodriguez
(LB) active — Rodriguez logged six tackles (four solo) and one pass defensed for an interception in the Dolphins' 24-10 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Active
M
Malik Washington
(WR) active — Washington caught five of 10 targets for 56 yards in Sunday's 24-10 loss to Kansas City. He gained five rushing yards on two carries.
Active
G
Greg Dulcich
(TE) active — Dulcich caught five of seven targets for 55 yards in the Dolphins' 24-10 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Active
R
Riley Patterson
(PK) active — Patterson made his only field-goal attempt and sole extra-point try during Sunday's 24-10 loss to the Chiefs.
Active
D
De'Von Achane
(RB) Injured Reserve — The Dolphins placed Achane (knee) on injured reserve Monday.
Injured Reserve
M
Marcellas Dial Jr.
(CB) active
Active
D
DJ Campbell
(G) active
Active
B
Brady Cook
(QB) active
Active
C
Chukwuebuka Godrick
(OT) active
Active
M
Malik Willis
(QB) active — Willis completed 20 of 36 passes for 210 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 24-10 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed nine times for 56 yards and lost a fumble.
Active
O
Ollie Gordon II
(RB) active — Gordon rushed 17 times for 41 yards and a touchdown while catching all three of his targets for 14 yards in Sunday's 24-10 loss to the Chiefs.
Active
R
Ryan Miller
(WR) active — Miller (hip/back) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Active
J
JuJu Brents
(CB) active
Active
C
Chop Robinson
(LB) active — Robinson has cleared the concussion protocol and is available to play in Sunday's matchup with the Chiefs, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports.
Active
K
Kevin Coleman Jr.
(WR) active — Coleman played 27 offensive snaps and saw no targets in Sunday's 35-13 loss to the 49ers.
Active

Minnesota Vikings

J
Justin Jefferson
(WR) out — Jefferson (ankle) has been already been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, but the Vikings are hopeful that the superstar wide receiver will return for Week 5 against the Saints, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.
Out
B
Brett Thorson
(P) out — Thorson (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Dolphins.
Out
C
Charles Demmings
(CB) out — Demmings (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Dolphins.
Out
J
Jordan Addison
(WR) active — Addison will serve as the Vikings' top wide receiver against the Dolphins on Sunday due to the absence of Justin Jefferson (ankle), Craig Peters of the Vikings' official site reports.
Active
B
Blake Cashman
(LB) active — Cashman (elbow) does not carry an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Ben Goessling of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Active
J
Joshua Metellus
(S) active — Metellus recorded nine tackles (four solo), including 0.5 sacks, and a defensed pass Sunday against Tampa Bay in a 23-16 victory.
Active
I
Isaiah Rodgers
(CB) active — Rodgers logged six tackles (two solo) and an interception in Sunday's 23-16 victory over Tampa Bay.
Active
E
Eric Wilson
(LB) active — Wilson finished Sunday's 23-16 victory over Tampa Bay with 10 tackles, including 1.5 sacks, and one defensed pass.
Active
J
Josh Oliver
(TE) Injured Reserve — The Vikings placed Oliver (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.
Injured Reserve
K
Kyle Van Noy
(LB) active — The Vikings signed Van Noy from the practice squad to the active roster Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.
Active
M
Max Brosmer
(QB) active — The Vikings signed Brosmer off their practice squad Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.
Active
J
Jauan Jennings
(WR) active — Jennings caught one of two targets for one yard Sunday in a 23-16 win against Tampa Bay.
Active
T
T.J. Hockenson
(TE) active — Hockenson caught two of his four targets for 11 yards in the Vikings' 23-16 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Active
J
Jeshaun Jones
(WR) active — The NFL lifted its suspension of Jones on Monday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
Active
Z
Zemaiah Vaughn
(CB) active
Active
E
Elijah Williams
(DE) active
Active
T
Tavierre Thomas
(S) active
Active
C
Caleb Tiernan
(OT) active
Active
J
Jakobe Thomas
(S) active
Active
W
Will Reichard
(PK) active — Reichard hit all three field-goal attempts and both extra-point tries in Sunday's 23-16 win over the Bucs.
Active
A
Aaron Jones Sr.
(RB) active — Jones tallied 17 carries for 58 yards and reeled in five of six targets for 34 yards during Sunday's 23-16 win in Tampa Bay.
Active
K
Kyler Murray
(QB) active — Murray (concussion) completed 15 of 29 passes for 168 yards, one touchdown and one interception and took two carries for 17 yards during Sunday's 23-16 win at Tampa Bay.
Active
I
Ivan Pace Jr.
(LB) active — Pace (personal) is active for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers.
Active
N
Nick Samac
(C) Injured Reserve — The Vikings placed Samac (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.
Injured Reserve
D
DeeJay Dallas
(RB) active — Dallas (toe) practiced fully Friday and doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game in Tampa Bay.
Active
Game Preview
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
until kickoff
Current Line
Spread -17.5 (235)
Total Over 38.5
Key Injuries
Carlos Washington Jr. Active
Robert Beal Jr. Out
Justin Jefferson Out
Brett Thorson Out
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings

+21.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota Vikings 64% Sharp Lean
"OMEGA -24 vs market -10 gives 14 pts model value on 3-0 Vikings, capped at 64 for display"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 51%
Edge +10.8%
Line Movement
Open Not supplied
Current Minnesota Vikings -10.0 (-105) / Total 38.5
Movement No opening line supplied; no movement calculable
62% cover vs 51.2% implied at -105 is +EV; display-tier only, capped confidence
FULL ANALYSIS
Vikings 3-0 laying 10 at home vs 0-3 Dolphins with OMEGA projecting 31.1-7.3, a 14-pt gap to market. Jefferson out caps the blowout case on key number 10, and totals match at 38.5 with decomposed 39.2 warning. Display only, no validated edge.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Minnesota Vikings -10.0
+21.0 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Vikings None
+14.7 EV 50%
TOTAL under 38.5
+7.4 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Minnesota Vikings -520
  • OMEGA 96.2% win prob vs 83.9% breakeven at -520; too juiced per -250 filter so PASS
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Minnesota Vikings -10.0
  • OMEGA -24.0 vs market -10.0 is 14.0 pts of model edge with 3-0 vs 0-3 and EWMA form 27.9 vs 12.1
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 38.5
  • OMEGA 38.5 and expected 38.4 align on under with Dolphins EWMA 12.1 and Achane on IR
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Vikings -10.5 vs a 0-3 Dolphins team that can't score — OMEGA projects a 24-point win, but market skepticism keeps the line low.
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