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MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Padres
San Diego Padres
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.8% EV ALIGNED
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
"Over 8.0 total — Poisson model sees +15.2pp edge despite injury adjustments. Market overcorrected to lineup losses; 65.2% model over probability vs 50% market."
EV / $100
+9.8
Win Prob
61%
Edge
+2.5%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
61%
TOTAL over 8.0
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1148445 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 508 trades Kalshi: 123 trades Largest: $72149
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
38.8%
ML
158 / -158

Player Props Engine

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Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 112 / -134 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 116 / -128 -
Value Line - 116 / -143 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-370) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-149) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -140 / 140 122 / -122 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

T
Teoscar Hernandez
(LF) 10-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Saturday that Hernandez (hamstring) will be activated off the injured list ahead of Monday's series opener versus the Athletics, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Treinen
(RP) 15-day IL — Treinen does not have any structural damage in his injured right elbow, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 60-day IL — Snell (elbow) threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Friday, and manager Dave Roberts said it went well, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — Knack (chest) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding two runs on five hits and one walk over 1.1 innings.
60-Day-IL
K
Kendall George
(CF) out — George (knee) has been rehabbing at the Dodgers' spring training facility in Arizona and is on track to return after the All-Star break, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
Out
W
Will Smith
(C) 10-day IL — Manager Dave Roberts said Sunday that Smith (neck) won't travel with the Dodgers for their upcoming road trip, which begins Monday and runs through July 1, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 60-day IL — Diaz (elbow) is throwing in the bullpen Friday at Dodger Stadium, reports Jack Harris of the California Post.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 10-day IL — Hernandez (oblique) has started some baseball activities but remains in the early stages of his rehab, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Glasnow
(SP) 60-day IL — Glasnow (back) has yet to resume throwing, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Chris Campos
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding one hit and one walk over two-thirds of a scoreless frame.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 60-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 60-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL

San Diego Padres

N
Nick Pivetta
(SP) 60-day IL — Pivetta (forearm) has advanced to playing long toss and could soon begin throwing off a mound, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cronenworth
(2B) 7-day IL — Cronenworth (concussion) went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run and a double Friday in a rehab appearance with Triple-A El Paso.
7-Day IL
T
Ty France
(1B) day-to-day — France, who was hit in the wrist by a pitch against the Dodgers on Friday, had X-rays return negative, but he's out of Saturday's lineup, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Lucas Giolito
(SP) 15-day IL — Giolito was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to Monday, with right elbow inflammation.
15-Day-IL
G
German Marquez
(SP) 15-day IL — Marquez (forearm) struck out three and allowed three earned runs on five hits and three walks across five innings in a rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A El Paso.
15-Day-IL
M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (forearm) made his first rehab appearance with Triple-A El Paso on Sunday, tossing 2.1 scoreless innings.
15-Day-IL
L
Luis Campusano
(C) 10-day IL — Campusano (toe) continues to rehab in Arizona but hasn't yet been scheduled for a minor-league rehab assignment, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 60-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
R
Ramon Laureano
(LF) 60-day IL — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jeremiah Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.
Out
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 60-day IL — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-370)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Teoscar Hernandez 10-Day-IL
Blake Treinen 15-Day-IL
Nick Pivetta 60-Day-IL
Jake Cronenworth 7-Day IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

+9.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Dodgers 60% Lean
"Over 8.0 total — Poisson model sees +15.2pp edge despite injury adjustments. Market overcorrected to lineup losses; 65.2% model over probability vs 50% market."
61% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 61%
Book Implied 59%
Edge +2.5%
Line Movement
Current Dodgers -142 / Padres +118 | Total 8.0 | Spread Padres +1.5
Movement No significant movement detected from opening to current. Model-averaged market prior vs current is flat.
Both teams have ~7.8% net negative injury impact on run scoring (lambda adj -7.8% each side) — pushes toward lower-scoring game than raw model suggests. Padres missing key bullpen arms (Marquez, Waldron, Campusano, Cronenworth) — late-inning leverage disadvantage. Dodgers missing Teoscar Hernandez (10-day IL) and Will Smith (10-day IL) — middle-of-order depth thinned. Venue TBD — outdoor conditions uncertain. If Petco Park, suppresses HR by ~8% vs neutral. No weather data available.
Model estimates 61.2% win probability vs market's 58.7% for Dodgers moneyline, yielding +4.2 EV per $100 after accounting for vig.
FULL ANALYSIS
The big edge here is the total: Bayesian fusion gives a +15.2pp edge on over 8.0 at -110. Yes, both teams are missing key bats, but the Poisson model — even after -7.8% lambda injury haircut per side — still projects north of 20 runs. Market has overcorrected to injury news. The spread also shows sharp signal: Pinnacle fair value on Padres spread is 41.2% but retail books are offering +260 — that's a massive +48.5% EV if you want to bet Padres +1.5. For unit efficiency, Dodgers -1.5 at +115 is the better side given model win probability of 61.2%. Moneyline at -142 is borderline juiced and doesn't clear the 5pt breakeven cushion — pass that.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp vs public spread analysis shows 18.6% edge divergence favoring away side (strong signal). Pinnacle de-vigged fair value on spread: away 41.2% — retail book (Bovada) offering +260 for that side equates to +48.5% EV. Prediction markets and Kalshi consensus at 56.5% away confirm. Whale volume is EXTREME ($1.1M) but 66% on home — a split signal. Overall direction: away.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
+9.8 EV 60% 1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
+4.2 EV 61% 1u
TOTAL over 8.0
+12.0 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 61%
Los Angeles Dodgers -142
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 61.2% vs market implied 58.7% yields +2.5pp edge; model agreement VERY_LOW (spread only 26.2%) but ELO component drives projection — Dodgers are outperforming ratings, not yet fully priced in
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
  • Dodgers are strong road favorites (61.2% model win prob) and the -1.5 spread at +115 offers a 14.8% breakeven discount — with +48.5% EV per Bovada's mispriced +260 on Padres spread, taking Dodgers -1.5 is the efficient hedge with positive CLV projection
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 64%
OVER 8.0
  • Posterior over probability is 65.2% vs market 50.0% — a +15.2pp edge, the single largest model divergence
  • Poisson scoring model projects ~22.5 combined runs; even after injury-lambda adjustment (-7.8% each side) the projection remains well above 8.0
  • Low total is a clear market overcorrection to bullpen uncertainty and missing bats
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Over 8.0 total runs: Bayesian edge +15.2pp, sharp money aligning, and OMEGA projects 22.5 runs — massive model-market disconnect on total
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