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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
San Diego Padres
Padres
San Diego Padres
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.6% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 2.2
"Cardinals +2.2 (56.3% posterior, omega pickem edge) + over 7.5 (65% prob vs model 22.5 total)"
EV / $100
+12.0
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
46%
TOTAL over 7.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$564514 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (72% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 304 trades Kalshi: 140 trades Largest: $20000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
36.8%
ML
172 / -172

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Cardinals

San Diego Padres

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -143 / 120 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -138 / 124 -
Value Line - -155 / 123 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (295) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (151) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 162 / -162 -131 / 131 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Nootbaar (heels) is on track to begin a rehab assignment as soon as the week of May 10, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Pushard (knee) will need "several more" rehab appearances at Triple-A Memphis before being activated from the 10-day injured list, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 10-day IL — The Cardinals placed Urias on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with right elbow lateral epicondylitis.
10-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

San Diego Padres

J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
G
German Marquez
(SP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Marquez on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right forearm nerve irritation.
15-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jake Cronenworth
(2B) 7-day IL — The Padres placed Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion injured list Tuesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
7-day il
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 60-day IL — The Padres transferred Musgrove (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
L
Luis Campusano
(C) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Campusano on the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a left toe fracture.
10-Day-IL
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 60-day IL — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
N
Nick Pivetta
(SP) 15-day IL — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (295)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Sem Robberse Day-To-Day
Lars Nootbaar 60-Day-IL
Jhony Brito 60-Day-IL
German Marquez 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

+12.0 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 56% Lean
"Cardinals +2.2 (56.3% posterior, omega pickem edge) + over 7.5 (65% prob vs model 22.5 total)"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.4%
Line Movement
Current Padres -2.2 / Cardinals +2.2 | Total 7.5 | ML Padres -153 / Cardinals +128
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Positive EV on Cardinals ML +128 (45.6% posterior vs 39.5% implied); spread away cover EV +12.0 at -110
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread pickem 0.0 vs market Padres -2.2 gives 56% posterior Cardinals cover edge, confirmed by MC 47.5% home win at even line. Total market 7.5 ignores 22.5 omega/MC 19.3 projection for 65% over prob. Whale extreme home volume and sharp spread home contradict but Tier 1 models dominate; injuries net even -8%.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals 2.2
+12.0 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
+4.0 EV 46% 0u
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.4 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 46%
St. Louis Cardinals 128
  • Posterior 45.6% Cardinals win vs implied 39.5%; exceeds breakeven 43.9%
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
St. Louis Cardinals 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Cardinals cover +2.2 vs market 50%; omega spread pickem 0.0 vs market -2.2 home
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 7.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50%; omega total 22.5 and MC projected 19.3 >> 7.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cardinals +2.2 (56% cover, +7.5 EV) on 2.2pt Omega-market gap + Bayesian +6pp; Over 8 (+20 EV) total mismatch
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