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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +11.9% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets 0.0
"Over 8.0 +15.2pp Bayesian edge, MC 9.9-9.6 avg despite low market total; Tigers ML slim +1.8pp but sharps contra on Mets"
EV / $100
+2.5
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+0.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
51%
TOTAL over 8.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 7.0% divergence on ML with strong signal. RLM detected on moneyline.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$981690 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (71% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 275 trades Kalshi: 1388 trades Largest: $31105
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +116.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
36.9%
ML
171 / -171

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Tigers

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -110 / -110 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -144 / 130 -
Value Line - -107 / -117 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (148) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 159 / -159 -137 / 137 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

C
Casey Mize
(SP) 15-day IL — Mize (thigh) threw live batting practice Monday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Vest
(RP) 15-day IL — Vest (forearm) threw a bullpen session Monday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Connor Seabold
(RP) 15-day IL — Seabold (ankle) struck out two and gave up one hit and no walks over a scoreless inning in his rehab appearance Friday with Single-A Lakeland.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Verlander to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kerry Carpenter
(RF) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Carpenter on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to an AC joint sprain in his left shoulder.
10-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (adductor) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Tuesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tarik Skubal
(SP) 15-day IL — Skubal could return in as little as 4-to-6 weeks following surgery Wednesday to remove a loose body from his left elbow, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) yielded two runs (one earned) on two hits and no walks while striking out two batters over 1.2 innings in his rehab start Sunday with Single-A Lakeland.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
F
Framber Valdez
(SP) Suspension — Valdez's six-game suspension was reduced to five games Wednesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
suspension
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day

New York Mets

F
Francisco Alvarez
(C) day-to-day — Alvarez is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 10-day IL — Mets manger Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that Robert (back) is still experiencing lingering symptoms and "is not progressing the way we would like," Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (hip/lat) is expected to resume a rehab assignment this weekend, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Out
K
Kodai Senga
(SP) 15-day IL — Senga (back) completed a bullpen session Sunday, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 10-day IL — Polanco's bruised right wrist has recovered nicely, but he's dealing with a flareup of the bursitis in his left Achilles, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Sunday that Kessinger sustained "a pretty significant injury" to his left hamstring and will need at least 8-12 weeks to recover, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
Out
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nick Burdi
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (148)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Casey Mize 15-Day-IL
Will Vest 15-Day-IL
Francisco Alvarez Day-To-Day
Luis Robert Jr. 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets

+2.5 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 60% Lean
"Over 8.0 +15.2pp Bayesian edge, MC 9.9-9.6 avg despite low market total; Tigers ML slim +1.8pp but sharps contra on Mets"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +0.8%
Line Movement
Current ML: Mets -104 / Tigers -116 | Spread: Tigers -116 (run line implied) | Total: 8.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
Slight +EV on Tigers ML (+1.8pp edge vs market); strong +EV on over 8.0 (+15.2pp posterior edge)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior shows +1.8pp edge on Tigers ML but sharps/whales heavy on Mets (7% divergence, extreme $981k volume); over 8.0 has massive 65.2% posterior (+15.2pp) with MC projecting 19.5 runs vs omega 22.5. Mets injuries hit harder (-12.9%) but model agreement very low, cap confidence. Data degraded, favor total edge.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 7.0% on Mets ML with RLM yes; +11.9% EV on home ML at retail vs Pinnacle fair value
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets 0.0
+2.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
+1.8 EV 51%
TOTAL over 8.0
+15.8 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 51%
Detroit Tigers -116
  • Bayesian posterior 50.8% vs market 49.0% (+1.8pp edge on away ML)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
New York Mets 0.0
  • Omega spread at 0.0 vs market implying Tigers edge, but sharp money and RLM favor Mets
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.0
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50.0% (+15.2pp edge); MC projects 9.9-9.6 avg 19.5 runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets ML -106 (56% conf, +1.1 EV): Extreme $609k whale steam overrides 6% net injury edge to Tigers
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