FIFA World Cup
Algeria
Algeria
Jordan
Jordan
Whale Activity Detected
$10070 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 10 trades
Largest: $1007
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAAlgeria
Jordan
OMEGA Model Lines
MODELSpread
0.3
Moneyline
JOR -104
/
ALG 104
Win Probability
51%
-
49%
OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Algeria @ Jordan
Jordan
55%
Lean
OMEGA model sees no actionable edge on this game. Jordan -190 offers zero edge vs Bayesian posterior — no model, no sharp divergence, no value. Hard on all markets.
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
85%
Book Implied
85%
Edge
0.0%
Line Movement
Open
Jordan -1.5 (-190) / Total 2.5
Current
Jordan -1.5 (-190) / Total 2.5
Movement
No movement detected — market is static with very limited liquidity.
Neutral venue (Levi's Stadium) — no home advantage for either side.
No reported injuries — full rosters expected.
Low data quality (33%) — all signals are weak or missing.
FULL ANALYSIS
Jordan is a massive -190 favorite over Algeria in this neutral-site cup match at Levi's Stadium. The Bayesian posterior (84.6%) exactly matches the market price — there is zero model edge on either side. Data quality is poor (33%) with no Poisson, ELO, Monte Carlo, or sharp/public divergence data available. The whale signal shows $10K on Jordan but from only 1 wallet with 50% confidence — too thin to act on. No injuries reported. The total of 2.5 is a coin flip with no quantitative support. This game is a hard pass across all markets — no actionable edge exists.
SHARP MONEY
Whale signal shows $10K volume on HOME (Jordan) with 50% confidence — moderate tier but only 1 wallet. No sharp vs public divergence data available. Signal is too thin to rely on.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Jordan -190
- Jordan is the clear favorite but the -190 price offers zero edge vs the Bayesian posterior of 84.6%
- Breakeven is 65.5% — our confidence would need to exceed 70% to recommend, which it does not
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Jordan -1.5
- Jordan is the stronger side on paper and the market has them as heavy favorites, but the -190 juice on -1.5 is prohibitive and no model edge exists
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Total of 2.5 is typical for international cup matches
- No model edge — Bayesian posterior unavailable for totals
- Historical data shows cup matches often stay under 2.5 but no quantitative validation here
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Algeria ML at -175 shows massive Bayesian edge (83.3% vs 63.6% implied) but data quality caps confidence at 65.
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