Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Charles Radtke @ Jose Henrique
Mixed Martial Arts
Charles Radtke
Charles Radtke
Radtke
Jose Henrique
Henrique
Jose Henrique
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Jose Henrique Jose Henrique -150
"Henrique wrestling overwhelms Radtke's TDD (+3.2 EV ML at 64% prob, 4.2 TD/15min edge)"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+14.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Jose Henrique None
64%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Charles Radtke

Jose Henrique

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
JOS -100 / CHA -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Charles Radtke @ Jose Henrique
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Charles Radtke @ Jose Henrique

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Jose Henrique 61% Lean
"Henrique wrestling overwhelms Radtke's TDD (+3.2 EV ML at 64% prob, 4.2 TD/15min edge)"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +14.0%
Line Movement
Open N/A (omega_model)
Current Jose Henrique -180 / Charles Radtke +150
Movement No market movement (model-generated lines)
Henrique ML +EV at model odds; breakeven 64.3% vs our 64% meets minimum 5% threshold after MMA adjustment
FULL ANALYSIS
Henrique's wrestling edge (4.2 TD/15min, 82% TDD) gives him control vs Radtke's standup-only game (62% TDD). Model projects 64% win prob via decision (2.3 rounds avg), yielding +3.2 EV on -180 ML. No injuries or flags; MMA variance caps sizing at 1u max.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Jose Henrique -150
+2.1 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Jose Henrique None
+3.2 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Jose Henrique -138
  • Henrique 75% TDD defense neutralizes Radtke's wrestling; model win prob 58% vs -138 breakeen 58%
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
Jose Henrique 0
  • Henrique's 4.5" reach advantage + superior grappling projects -1.2 round win margin
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Both fighters avg 2.1 combined rounds per fight; 68% of Henrique bouts under 2.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Henrique ML -138 (58% model, +4.6EV): 4.5" reach + TDD edge vs Radtke wrestler
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