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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Kansas City Royals
Royals
Kansas City Royals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +54.6% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals -1.5
"Royals ML +2% Bayesian edge w/ extreme whales + sharp spread div; over 8.0 +15pp as models see 20 total"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+8.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
59%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$488703 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 246 trades Kalshi: 36 trades Largest: $22642
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +131.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
43.0%
ML
133 / -133

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Kansas City Royals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -131 / 109 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -129 / 116 -
Value Line - -137 / 110 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (165) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 178 / -178 -123 / 123 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Shawn Armstrong
(RP) 15-day IL — Armstrong struck out one over a scoreless inning to pick up a hold in Friday's 4-1 win over the Cubs.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL

Kansas City Royals

N
Noah Cameron
(SP) day-to-day — Cameron (back) said he could have pitched through the back tightness that resulted in him being scratched from his scheduled start against the Guardians on Tuesday, with manager Matt Quatraro adding that the left-hander should be ready to rejoin the rotation after missing just one start, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Carlos Estevez
(RP) 15-day IL — Estevez (foot) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Falter
(RP) 15-day IL — Falter (elbow) allowed no hits or walks with two strikeouts across 1.1 scoreless innings with Triple-A Omaha on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jonathan India
(2B) 10-day IL — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.
10-Day-IL
J
James McArthur
(RP) 60-day IL — McArthur (elbow) is expected to resume a throwing program Monday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyson Guerrero
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Simonelli
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Vaz
(2B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Alec Marsh
(SP) 60-day IL — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Carlos Hernandez Day-To-Day
Noah Cameron Day-To-Day
Carlos Estevez 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Kansas City Royals 60% Lean
"Royals ML +2% Bayesian edge w/ extreme whales + sharp spread div; over 8.0 +15pp as models see 20 total"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.8%
Line Movement
Current Royals -1.5 -131 / Guardians +1.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
+2.0% calibrated edge on home ML at -131 yields +3.7 EV/$100; over 8.0 shows +15.2pp edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fuses to 58.8% Royals ML (+2% edge) confirmed by extreme whale volume ($484k, 86%) and sharp 13.5% spread divergence, despite MC 48% home win and low agreement. Over 8.0 crushes with 65.2% posterior as MC/omega project 19.8-22.5 total in no-pitcher-data spot. Home injuries net -2.3% but EWMA form 5.2 > 3.9 anchors lean; cap conf due to N=732 51.2% MLB WR.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 13.5% on spread (strong signal) and 2.0% on ML (moderate); +EV spread home +50.2%
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Kansas City Royals -1.5
+4.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
+3.7 EV 59% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+12.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 59%
Kansas City Royals -131
  • Bayesian posterior 58.8% vs market 56.7% (+2.0pp edge) with whale institutional support
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Kansas City Royals -1.5
  • Sharp 13.5% divergence favors Royals run line cover vs inefficient retail pricing
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC projects 19.8 total, omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Guardians +3 (58% posterior) vs overpriced Royals -3 line, Omega pick'em + MC close game = +11.5 EV
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