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Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Chicago White Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +46.6% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners -2.2
"Mariners -2.2: 19.3% sharp spread edge +47.9% EV vs fair value despite $915k whale fade"
EV / $100
+4.1
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
55%
TOTAL under 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1005337 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (81% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 329 trades Kalshi: 1011 trades Largest: $78000

Player Props Engine

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Seattle Mariners

Chicago White Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 113 / -135 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 119 / -129 -
Value Line - 116 / -143 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-350) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-142) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value -135 / 135 124 / -124 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 60-day IL — Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Teddy McGraw
(SP) day-to-day — McGraw is working his way back from right elbow issues, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mariners are leaning toward activating Miller (oblique) from the 15-day injured list next week in Houston, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Wisdom
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
V
Victor Robles
(RF) 10-day IL — Robles (pectoral) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tacoma on Sunday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Wilson
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wilson on the 10-day injured list Saturday due to a fractured left thumb.
10-Day-IL
G
Gabe Speier
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Speier on the 15-day injured list Monday with left shoulder inflammation, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Matt Brash
(RP) 15-day IL — Brash (lat) began playing catch Tuesday, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL

Chicago White Sox

K
Kyle Teel
(C) 10-day IL — Teel (hamstring) will run the bases this weekend before beginning a rehab assignment next week if all goes well, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Murray
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tim Elko
(1B) out — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.
Out
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — The White Sox placed Bush (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Feb. 10.
60-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 10-day IL — The White Sox placed Hays on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Saturday, due to a left calf strain.
10-Day-IL
E
Everson Pereira
(RF) 10-day IL — The White Sox placed Pereira on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a right pectoral strain.
10-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Berroa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 60-day IL — Thorpe (elbow) has thrown seven bullpen sessions as part of his rehab process, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-350)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Miles Mastrobuoni 60-Day-IL
Teddy McGraw Day-To-Day
Kyle Teel 10-Day-IL
Mike Vasil 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox

+4.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Mariners 58% Lean
"Mariners -2.2: 19.3% sharp spread edge +47.9% EV vs fair value despite $915k whale fade"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.5%
Line Movement
Current Seattle Mariners -2.2 (-139 ML) / Chicago White Sox +2.2 (+120 ML), Total 8.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
Negative EV on Mariners ML; marginal +0.1 EV on White Sox +120 but below 2% threshold
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp 19.3% spread edge favors Mariners -2.2 cover with +47.9% EV at Bovada despite Pinnacle fair value tilt. Extreme $915k whale volume on White Sox (82% conf) contradicts but defaults to sharp action. Low ERAs (Martin 1.64, Hancock 2.59) + injuries project under 8; H2H 1-2 recently.
SHARP MONEY
19.3% sharp edge on spread away + strong +EV (47.9% on Bovada); ML weak 0.4% away
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -2.2
+4.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
-6.3 EV 55%
TOTAL under 8.0
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Seattle Mariners -139
  • Cross-market confirmation with ML/spread both favoring away per consensus
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Seattle Mariners -2.2
  • 19.3% sharp divergence on spread favoring Mariners cover vs retail fair value (away 42.9%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.0
  • Strong pitcher ERAs (Martin 1.64, Hancock 2.59) project sub-8 runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mariners -2.2: 20.2% sharp spread edge +50.9% EV vs Pinnacle despite extreme whales on Sox
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