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MLS
D.C. United
D.C. United
United
New York City FC
FC
New York City FC
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
New York City FC New York City FC -0.5
"NYCFC -145 ML: 59% model prob + extreme $245k whales (82% conf) for marginal EV on stable line"
EV / $100
-0.5
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+9.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York City FC None
59%
TOTAL over 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$419648 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 186 trades Largest: $10000

Player Props Engine

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D.C. United

New York City FC

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-1.0
Moneyline
NEW 115 / D.C -115
Win Probability
46% - 54%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
D.C. United @ New York City FC
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

D.C. United @ New York City FC

+-0.5 EV
per $100 wagered
New York City FC 58% Lean
"NYCFC -145 ML: 59% model prob + extreme $245k whales (82% conf) for marginal EV on stable line"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +9.2%
Line Movement
Current Spread: NYC -0.5 (-155/+110) | ML: NYC -145 / DC +360 | Total: 2.5 (-110/-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion pegs NYC win at 59% matching de-vigged -145 ML with 0% edge, but $245k extreme whales (82% conf, 14 wallets) confirm home. No injuries/situational flags; poor data (32%) caps at lean. Spreads beat 56% in lean tier (N=125); prefer over juiced ML.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $245k (institutional tier) from 14 profitable wallets at 82% confidence on home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York City FC -0.5
-0.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York City FC None
+0.1 EV 59% 0.5u
TOTAL over 2.5
55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 59%
New York City FC -145
  • Bayesian posterior 59% home win matches de-vigged line but whales ($245k extreme) boost to marginal +EV
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
New York City FC -0.5
  • Model home win prob 59% vs -0.5 spread; extreme whales confirm despite juice
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 2.5
  • MLS avg ~2.8 goals pushes over 2.5 baseline; no pace/weather but default tilt
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
NYC FC -145 ML + spread lean: 59% posterior + extreme $245k whales despite flat models (+1.2 EV)
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