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MLS
Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers
Timbers
CF Montréal
Montréal
CF Montréal
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 0.5
"Over 3.5 +13.7pp edge (posterior 63.7%, expected 6.6-7.5 total) + POR ML +245 (73 EV vs 50% model prob)"
EV / $100
+4.5
Win Prob
50%
Edge
+0.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Portland Timbers None
50%
TOTAL over 3.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
41.9%
ML
139 / -139

Player Props Engine

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Portland Timbers

CF Montréal

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-0.1
Moneyline
CF 102 / POR -102
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Portland Timbers @ CF Montréal
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Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Portland Timbers @ CF Montréal

+4.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Portland Timbers 57% Lean
"Over 3.5 +13.7pp edge (posterior 63.7%, expected 6.6-7.5 total) + POR ML +245 (73 EV vs 50% model prob)"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +0.2%
Line Movement
Current MTL -0.5 (-115) / POR +0.5 (-120), ML MTL -110 / POR +245, Total 3.5
Movement No significant movement
Massive EV on POR ML at +245 vs 50.2% model prob (breakeven 29%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson+ELO projects even 3.8-3.8 goals (total 7.5) vs market 3.5, driving +13.7pp over edge and 63.7% posterior. POR ML +245 undervalued at 50.2% posterior vs 29% implied, breakeven crushed. Spread even per model vs MTL -0.5, POR +0.5 covers 57% in MC sims; low data reduces conf.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Portland Timbers 0.5
+4.5 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Portland Timbers None
+73.2 EV 50% 1.0u
TOTAL over 3.5
+17.4 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Portland Timbers 245
  • Posterior 50.2% vs market 29% implied, +2.6pp Bayesian edge on away ML
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
Portland Timbers 0.5
  • Omega spread even (0.0) vs market MTL -0.5, MC POR +0.5 cover 56.8%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 3.5
  • Posterior over 63.7% (+13.7pp edge), omega/MC/Dixon totals 6.6-7.5 vs market 3.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Market total 3.5 vs model 7.5 (3.8-3.8 exp); +13.7pp over edge + POR spread value
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