Arsenal @ Liverpool

English Premier League

Arsenal

1 - 0

Final

Liverpool

Full Game Analysis

English Premier League

Ω DDN SI PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Arsenal -0.5

"Arsenal 7-0-1 vs Liverpool 4-3-1 yet Arsenal pays +150 — form over brand, +11 EV per 100"

EV / $100

+10.9

Win Prob

54%

Edge

-10.9%

Size

0.5u

MONEYLINE Arsenal None

56%

TOTAL over 2.5

57%

Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Arsenal

Liverpool

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Market Consensus	-	199 / 146 ↑	-
Market Consensus	0.25 (-122)	-	-
Market Consensus	-	-	Over 2.75 (-113)
De-Vigged Fair Value	-118 / 118	115 / -115	O/U -108 / 108

Line Movement

Open Current

Box Score

FINAL

Arsenal

Liverpool

Arsenal -0.5

58% conf

Get Daily Picks

DDN SI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Arsenal (+150) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T03:40:09.644995 UTC

Arsenal +150 implies 40%; our record-adjusted model has them ~54% — the market is pricing Liverpool on home brand while Arsenal are unbeaten-run leaders.

Total: over 2.5 (-135) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T13:09:28.476847 UTC

Big Six head-to-heads at Anfield historically clear 3 goals and live-ball pace in Liverpool home games favors attacking output, but the -135 price leaves almost no margin.

Spread: Arsenal -0.5 (+135) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T03:40:09.723980 UTC

Arsenal are 7-0-1 with one defeat all season while Liverpool sit 4-3-1; +135 on the league's most consistent side at Anfield is above the ~42.5% implied we'd assign (~54%).

DDN SI ANALYSIS

+10.9 EV

per $100 wagered

Arsenal 58% Lean

Untested not on slate

"Arsenal 7-0-1 vs Liverpool 4-3-1 yet Arsenal pays +150 — form over brand, +11 EV per 100"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 54%

Book Implied 65%

Edge -10.9%

Line Movement

Current Liverpool -0.5 (-185) / Arsenal +0.5 (+135), Total 2.5

Movement No movement data supplied

Liverpool -185 fails the moneyline value filter badly: 64.9% breakeven needs ~70% confidence we do not have. Arsenal +150 at our 54% yields modest positive EV (+11/100); Arsenal +0.5/+135 is the safest expression of the same lean.

FULL ANALYSIS

Arsenal are 7-0-1 while Liverpool are already 3-losses-in-8, yet the book prices Liverpool -185 at home. That's brand pricing, not form pricing — Arsenal at +150/+135 is the value side in a game we'd make roughly a 54/25/21 split. Confidence stays lean (56-58) because EPL is off the validated slate and there's no sharp-market confirmation.

Recommended Sizing

0.5u

Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

SPREAD Arsenal -0.5

+10.9 EV 58% 0.5u

MONEYLINE Arsenal None

+11.0 EV 56% 0.5u

TOTAL over 2.5

+1.5 EV 57% 0.5u

MONEYLINE PICK

○ 56%

Arsenal 150

Arsenal +150 implies 40%; our record-adjusted model has them ~54% — the market is pricing Liverpool on home brand while Arsenal are unbeaten-run leaders

SPREAD PICK

○ 58%

Arsenal -0.5

Arsenal are 7-0-1 with one defeat all season while Liverpool sit 4-3-1; +135 on the league's most consistent side at Anfield is above the ~42.5% implied we'd assign (~54%)

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

○ 57%

OVER 2.5

Big Six head-to-heads at Anfield historically clear 3 goals and live-ball pace in Liverpool home games favors attacking output, but the -135 price leaves almost no margin

About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Arsenal ML at 140 vs 41.7% implied — model says 46%, ~+10 EV per $100, but capped at LEAN on an unvalidated EPL slate

Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700