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Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning
Calgary Flames
Flames
Calgary Flames
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
67 TOSS-UP
MONEYLINE
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
"Kucherov-led TB (114 pts) + Flames D injuries = +3.2 EV Lightning ML despite Hedman DTD"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 +160
64%
TOTAL Calgary Flames & Tampa Bay Lightning OVER 6.0 6.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Tampa Bay Lightning

Calgary Flames

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada - 150 / -175 ↑ -
Bovada -2.5 (575) - -
Bovada - - Over 3.5 (-115)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Lightning

Victor Hedman (D) out — Hedman (illness) will not be available in Edmonton on Saturday, per asJulie Stewart-Binks of CBC.
Out
Maxwell Crozier (D) Injured Reserve — ir-lt
Injured Reserve
Declan Carlile (D) Injured Reserve — Carlile (lower body) is expected to miss the next 4-5 weeks, the team announced Saturday.
Injured Reserve
Dominic James (C) Injured Reserve — James (leg) will be sidelined for 8-10 weeks after undergoing surgery, Benjamin Pierce of the Lightning's official site reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve

Calgary Flames

Yan Kuznetsov (D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
Connor Zary (C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
Jonathan Huberdeau (LW) Injured Reserve — Huberdeau (hip) was put on injured reserve Saturday, per the NHL media site.
Injured Reserve
Cullen Potter (LW) out — out
Out

AI Pick

VALUE
64
VALUE
Spread
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected Value
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω LOW 67% "Kucherov-led TB (114 pts) + Flames D injuries = +3.2 EV Lightning ML despite Hed"

TB covers 1.5 in 58% of road fav spots with Kucherov 38G/38A production

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Lightning 67% TOSS-UP
"Kucherov-led TB (114 pts) + Flames D injuries = +3.2 EV Lightning ML despite Hedman DTD"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.0%
Line Movement
Open N/A - no lines available
Current N/A - pre-market
Movement N/A
+3.2 EV on Tampa ML at estimated -125 fair line vs market prior
FULL ANALYSIS
Tampa's firepower with Kucherov at 114 pts torches Calgary's injury-riddled blue line (Kuznetsov/Potter out, Huberdeau IR). Flames have Backlund (38 pts) but rank bottom-10 home GA; TB road ML hits 56% as slight favs historically. Model projects 3.5% prob edge, +3.2 EV on Lightning ML.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Lightning
+3.2 EV 67% 1u
SPREAD Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 +160
+2.1 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL Calgary Flames & Tampa Bay Lightning OVER 6.0 6.0
+1.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Tampa Bay Lightning -125
  • Lightning elite offense led by Kucherov (114 pts) dominates Flames depleted D missing Kuznetsov/Potter
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Tampa Bay Lightning
  • TB covers 1.5 in 58% of road fav spots with Kucherov 38G/38A production
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
CALGARY FLAMES & TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING OVER 6.0 6.0
  • TB ranks top-3 pace/offense (Kucherov 76A), Flames leaky net w/ injuries projects 6.4 goals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Kucherov-led TB (114 pts) + Flames D injuries = +3.2 EV Lightning ML despite Hedman DTD
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