Home › MLB › Seattle Mariners @ St. Louis Cardinals
MLB
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +45.1% EV LATE TO MARKET
59% Lean
59% Lean
SPREAD
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners -2.2
"Mariners ML -139 +3.1 EV on sharp 19% div + Pinnacle fair value despite whales home"
EV / $100
+2.4
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
62%
TOTAL under 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.6% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$944407 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 434 trades Kalshi: 116 trades Largest: $98793
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -2.2
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
27.7%
ML
261 / -261

Player Props Engine

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Seattle Mariners

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 114 / -136 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 118 / -131 -
Value Line - 130 / -162 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-340) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-142) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-116)
De-Vigged Fair Value -134 / 134 125 / -125 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

B
Brendan Donovan
(2B) 10-day IL — The Mariners are optimistic that Donovan (groin) will be able to avoid a lengthy stay on the 10-day injured list, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 60-day IL — Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Wisdom
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — Miller (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Tacoma on Saturday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
V
Victor Robles
(RF) 10-day IL — Robles (pectoral) is participating in light baseball activities, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mariners transferred Vargas (lat) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Teddy McGraw
(SP) out
Out
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow.
60-Day-IL

St. Louis Cardinals

P
Pedro Pages
(C) day-to-day — Pages is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Marlins.
Day-To-Day
H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — The Cardinals are likely to insert Dobbins (knee) as part of a six-man rotation during their stretch of 17 games without an off day that begins Friday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) will head to Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Seattle Mariners @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-340)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Brendan Donovan 10-Day-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 60-Day-IL
Pedro Pages Day-To-Day
Hunter Dobbins 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Seattle Mariners @ St. Louis Cardinals

+2.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Mariners 59% Lean Calibrated
"Mariners ML -139 +3.1 EV on sharp 19% div + Pinnacle fair value despite whales home"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.5%
Line Movement
Current Mariners -2.2 / Cardinals +2.2 | Total 8.0 | ML Mariners -139 / Cardinals +125
Movement No significant movement
Injuries net home edge (+1.4%)
+EV on Mariners ML at -139 vs our 60.5% prob (breakeven 58.2%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money hammers Mariners ML/spread (20% div) + Bayesian edge despite omega even line and whale home volume. Injuries net Cardinals +1.4% but MC margin -0.1 pts away. Late to market -2.2 pts cuts edge, no pitchers hurts totals (MC 76% under 8).
SHARP MONEY
19.4% ML sharp edge + 20.2% spread divergence + RLM on ML
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -2.2
+2.4 EV 59% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
+3.1 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.0
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Seattle Mariners -139
  • +120% EV on Kambi away ML vs Pinnacle fair 57.2%
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
Seattle Mariners -2.2
  • Sharp 20.2% spread divergence + Bayesian -6% edge to Mariners despite omega even line
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.0
  • MC 75.6% under 24 total but market 8, historical totals losing
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cardinals +2.2 (69% MC cover, Pinnacle fair 55.9%) + whales $152k home vs sharp steam; model total 20.7 >> 8.0
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