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MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.4% EV
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
"ARI -1.5 13.9% sharp edge +50% EV vs Pinnacle, $57k whale steam home"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+5.8%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
57%
TOTAL under 9.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$58266 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 63 trades Largest: $7411

Player Props Engine

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -128 / 107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -122 / 111 -
Value Line - -127 / 102 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (315) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (163) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 176 / -176 -117 / 117 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) struck out five over three perfect innings in his first rehab start with Single-A Bradenton on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day

Arizona Diamondbacks

C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — Santana (thigh) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Reno on Saturday.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks assigned Locklear (elbow) to a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League on Saturday, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 60-day IL — Smith underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow Thursday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) out — Vukovich is expected to miss roughly 2-3 months with a left shoulder injury, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Out
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (315)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Jared Jones 60-Day-IL
Sean Sullivan Day-To-Day
Carlos Santana 10-Day-IL
Tyler Locklear 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 64% Sharp Lean
"ARI -1.5 13.9% sharp edge +50% EV vs Pinnacle, $57k whale steam home"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.8%
Line Movement
Current ARI -1.5 -126 / PIT +1.5 +106 | O/U 9.0 -110 | ML ARI -126 / PIT +104
Movement No significant movement
Net injury advantage home (+3.7%)
Neutral EV on home ML, stronger on spread per sharp divergence
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp 13.9% edge on ARI -1.5 vs Pinnacle fair 36.2% prob offers +50% EV retail inefficiency. Strong $57k whale volume home despite low 52% conviction, plus net +3.7% injury edge PIT. Degraded data/no pitchers caps at sharp lean; totals weak historically.
SHARP MONEY
13.9% sharp edge on spread home, +50.4% EV vs Pinnacle fair value (36.2% fair prob)
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
+5.2 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
+0.1 EV 57% 0.5u
TOTAL under 9.0
+0.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Arizona Diamondbacks -126
  • Bayesian posterior 55.8% matches market, confirmed by whale home consensus
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
  • 13.9% sharp edge on ARI -1.5 with +50.4% EV vs Pinnacle fair (36.2% prob)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 9.0
  • Pinnacle fair under 50.5%, totals historically losing (48.4% WR leans)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pirates ML +8.7pp Bayesian edge vs pred mkts + strong whales ($40k), MC under 69.2%
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