Home › MLB › Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
MLB
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
10 - 0
Final
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
Houston Astros Houston Astros 1.5
"Astros +104 ML +13pp Bayesian edge vs home shade, 65% over 9 GABP blowout proj"
EV / $100
+8.2
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+7.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
57%
TOTAL over 9.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +126.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
31.0%
ML
223 / -223

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Houston Astros

Cincinnati Reds

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -131 / 109 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 121 -
Value Line - -130 / 105 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (300) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (154) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 164 / -164 -126 / 126 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown (shoulder) threw a successful bullpen session Friday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Manager Joe Espada said Friday that Pena (hamstring) will "hopefully" run the bases this weekend, which would be the final step in his rehab program before starting a rehab assignment, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Wesneski (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Astros general manager Dana Brown said Tuesday that Imai (arm) will rejoin the rotation next week versus the Mariners, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Correa
(SS) 10-day IL — The Astros placed Correa (ankle) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Meyers (oblique) has started swinging a bat and reincorporating other baseball activities, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Taylor Trammell
(CF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Blanco (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lance McCullers Jr.
(SP) day-to-day — McCullers was removed from his start Wednesday against the Dodgers in the top of the third inning after he appeared to be contending with a blister on his pitching hand, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. He was charged with six earned runs on four hits and three walks over 2.2 innings prior to his departure.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
W
Walker Janek
(C) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
L
Lucas Spence
(OF) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Spence on its 7-day injured list April 22 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Y
Yainer Diaz
(C) 10-day IL — The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

E
Eugenio Suarez
(3B) 10-day IL — Suarez (oblique) took 50 swings Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Rhett Lowder
(SP) day-to-day — Lowder was given an injection in the AC joint of his right shoulder after an MRI on Friday came back negative, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — Ferguson (oblique) allowed one run on one hit and struck out two over one inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Friday.
15-Day-IL
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
E
Emilio Pagan
(RP) 15-day IL — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Houston Astros
Astros
10
-
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
0
Houston Astros 1.5
57% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds

+8.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros 57% Lean
"Astros +104 ML +13pp Bayesian edge vs home shade, 65% over 9 GABP blowout proj"
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +7.2%
Line Movement
Current CIN ML -126 / HOU +104 | Total 9.0 | Spread CIN -126
Movement No significant movement
Strong +13pp edge on Astros ML per calibrated
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior crushes market with 57.2% Astros win prob vs 44.2% implied at +104, high model agreement on away edge despite whale home steam. Total posterior 65.2% over 9 in GABP with MC projecting 20.1 combined and Burrows' 5.97 ERA inflating runs. Spread value on Astros +1.5 as omega even line ignores pitcher disparity, sharp ML away confirms.
SHARP MONEY
ML sharp 1.4% away moderate; spread sharp 13.7% home strong but ML posterior dominates
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Houston Astros 1.5
+8.2 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
+16.7 EV 57% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+24.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Houston Astros 104
  • Bayesian posterior 57.2% away vs 44.2% market implied (+13pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
Houston Astros 1.5
  • Omega spread even at 0.0 vs market CIN -1.5 shade, Bayesian ML proxy shows away edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% market (+15.2pp), GABP hitter park + omega/MC 20+ totals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Astros ML +11.5pp Bayesian edge vs Kalshi 48% (posterior 59.5%) + MC under 80% at 22.5
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