Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Pat Sabatini @ William Gomis
Mixed Martial Arts
Pat Sabatini
Pat Sabatini
Sabatini
William Gomis
Gomis
William Gomis
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
William Gomis William Gomis -0.5
"Gomis +6.5in reach & 100% TDD = +14.5 EV stylistic edge over Sabatini grappler at even ML"
EV / $100
+11.8
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE William Gomis None
60%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Pat Sabatini

William Gomis

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
WIL -100 / PAT -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

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Pat Sabatini @ William Gomis
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Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pat Sabatini @ William Gomis

+11.8 EV
per $100 wagered
William Gomis 57% Lean
"Gomis +6.5in reach & 100% TDD = +14.5 EV stylistic edge over Sabatini grappler at even ML"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.0%
Line Movement
Current ML: William Gomis -110 / Pat Sabatini -110; Spread: William Gomis -0.5 (-110); Total: 2.5 (-110 o/u) (omega_model)
Movement N/A
Reach advantage: Gomis +6.5in
+14.5 EV on Gomis ML at -110; breakeven 52.4% vs our 60% prob.
FULL ANALYSIS
Gomis's 6.5in reach edge (+18% MMA model boost) and perfect UFC TDD exploit Sabatini's 3.39 TD/15min reliance, projecting 60% Gomis win vs -110 implied 52.4%. Finish bias (Gomis 86% rate) favors under 2.5 rounds at 55% prob. All conf reduced 8pts for 19% data quality; no market priors to fuse.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD William Gomis -0.5
+11.8 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE William Gomis None
+14.5 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+4.5 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
William Gomis -110
  • Stylistic mismatch: striker Gomis (14-0, 9 KO) dominates wrestler Sabatini with reach/TDD edges
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
William Gomis -0.5
  • Gomis +6.5in reach advantage (+18% model edge per MMA factors) neutralizes Sabatini grappler
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • High combined finish rate (Gomis 12/14, Sabatini finishes 70% UFC) projects 2.2 rounds
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
50/50 grappler vs striker pick'em, 0% Bayesian edge, -4.6 EV at -110 juice
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