Home › Serie A › Sassuolo @ Fiorentina
Serie A
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Fiorentina Fiorentina -0.5
"Fiorentina -0.5 (+5.1 EV) backed by moderate whales (100% home $8k) vs Sassuolo record overvalue"
EV / $100
+5.1
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Fiorentina None
60%
TOTAL under 2.5
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$8857 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 9 trades Largest: $984

Player Props Engine

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Sassuolo

Fiorentina

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
0.6
Moneyline
FIO -109 / SAS 109
Win Probability
52% - 48%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Sassuolo @ Fiorentina
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Sassuolo @ Fiorentina

+5.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Fiorentina 58% Lean Raw
"Fiorentina -0.5 (+5.1 EV) backed by moderate whales (100% home $8k) vs Sassuolo record overvalue"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Current FIO -0.5 (-105 Home / -130 Away); ML Fiorentina +100 / Sassuolo +275; Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement No significant movement detected
+5.1 EV on Fiorentina -0.5 at -105; ML +100 offers +8 EV but higher variance in 3-way soccer market
FULL ANALYSIS
Whale money ($8k moderate volume, 100% home) provides lone Tier 2 signal on Fiorentina -0.5/+100 amid no models/injuries (Bayesian 50% neutral). Low goal leaders (0.3 gpg) favor 2.5 under but totals unprofitable (48.7% WR). Poor data caps at LEAN; monitor for steam.
SHARP MONEY
Moderate whale volume ($8,857, 100% on home) from 1 profitable wallet aligns with home advantage in Serie A
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Fiorentina -0.5
+5.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Fiorentina None
+8.0 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.8 EV 54% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Fiorentina 100
  • Breakeven 50% exceeded by 4% (our 54%) on +100 with whale confirmation; Sassuolo overvalued on record alone
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Fiorentina -0.5
  • Moderate whale consensus (100% home, $8k volume) + Bayesian posterior edge vs inefficient early Serie A lines
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 2.5
  • Low goal production from leaders (Kean/Pinamonti ~0.3 gpg) in mid-table matchup
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Fiorentina ML -110: 55% model vs 52% implied (+3% edge) + positive DDN H2H history
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